CKNW Editorial
for July 12, 1999

There is no failure quite so spectacular as a sure thing gone wrong. And it seems that the United Alternative movement, even if it lingers on until the next election is a bomb. The most spectacular part of the failure might well be that it creates the winning conditions for Lucien Bouchard’s next referendum shot.

How so?

Well, as with a lot of postulations there has to be some luck involved but here’s how it could well unfold.

The Tories and the Reform, because of a deal not to run against each other in key Ontario and a few Alberta and B.C. ridings, wind up the biggest entity in the next parliament though not with enough to form a government. But because of their success, The Tories are now in a position to leave the deal with Reform and make another deal - with the Liberals!Why would this happen?

Because the Tories and the Reform parties have one very obvious fault line – the way Quebec is to be treated. And the cooperation between the Reform and Conservative parties could well be ruptured during the campaign itself.

Let us assume a federal election in the Spring of 2000. During the campaign the rift between the Tories and Reform becomes obvious. Joe Clark and his lads are pushing for an accommodation with Quebec and, while not exactly using the words, are calling for an implementation of the late unlamented Calgary Accord. There is no way this will be approved in British Columbia and Alberta and this rift become obvious. At the end of the day there is only one combination which can form a government which does not include the Bloc Quebecois (who will have won 65 seats demanding that Canada negotiate a special deal with Quebec) and that is a Liberal/Tory partnership. Strange as that sounds, it is a distinct possibility. Bear this in mind – in the Parliament there would now be two national parties who want to make a deal, one regional party that says it wants a deal but wants no such thing (the BQ)  and another, Reform, who says no way to any deal.

In the meantime, Lucien Bouchard has been telling all who will listen, that after the federal election he expects to negotiate a deal with Canada and Joe Clark, of course, has been harrumphing that he agrees.

Now we have two “appeasers” in coalition in Ottawa and a bully in Quebec City waiting to be appeased. What Mr Bouchard knows and the new Liberal/Tory coalition won’t admit is that any offer from Ottawa, presumably but not necessarily accompanied by a referendum, will raise merry old hell in the far west. With that in mind, Bouchard will push for an offer which, he will trumpet, must have the concurrence of the rest of the country. There will be, therefore, Meech Lake III.

The Liberals and the Tories simply do not believe the result of the October 26, 1992 referendum on Charlottetown. They believe it was torpedoed because the people didn’t understand it and that another effort, better explained and better presented, will get the job done. It won’t, of course, and how it fares in Quebec is largely irrelevant. From Mr Bouchard’s point of view the best result would be to have it rejected in Alberta and British Columbia and passed in Quebec but as long as it is rejected in part of the “rest of Canada”, his purposes are served. Either way he can go to his electorate on the basis that Canada will not endorse even the mildest of “deals”. The mood of the country and the Quebec electorate, after such a referendum, will not be great and there would be a very good chance that Mr Bouchard could win his referendum.

It must be remembered that Lucien Bouchard is preparing his ground carefully. He knows from the experience of two failed referenda that he can get a majority of Francophones but almost none of the remaining voters. He is now on a campaign, and it will prove effective, to include all Quebeckers in his vision. The distinct society is not a Francophone society but a Quebec society. This will not get non Francophones flocking to the separatist colours but it will get some and it will keep others from voting.

It’s idiotic to think that all of the forgoing is even possible. The rest of Canada is on a winning streak. If we just play it cool, offer Quebec nothing she hasn’t already got, Mr Bouchard will be forced to have his referendum or lose face, and thus lose power. We have all the blue chips in front of us and the only way we can lose them is for bleeding hearts like Joe Clark and those who still believe that Meech/Charlottetown can work, gain power and make an offer that will not be redeemed in much of the country and thus will be seen as another gross insult to Quebec.

The Chretien government, in the past couple of years, has done well by making it clear to Quebec City that there are no deals to be made. If the Tories get a share of power, that will all go down the drain.

Winning conditions for Mr Bouchard? They seem so elusive now but when the appeasers get back into the driver’s seat, or at worst in the front seat beside him, those winning conditions might just be handed to Lucien Bouchard on a platter.