CKNW Editorial
for July 22, 1999

So, Premier Clark is going to stay on. That, of course, is his right and the only way he can be removed is by his own party or by us at election time.

Last Sunday a golfer known only to his wife and a few friends captured the British Open coming an unheard of 10 strokes off the pace on the last day. This is the task facing Mr Clark only I think it’s more like 20 behind. But as anything is possible, how can this happen?

To begin with, the police report in the Palarinos case must utterly exonerate Mr Clark. That’s probably the least of his worries because, after all, the police said he wasn’t under investigation. The nagging worry is that apparently the police took copies of the Clark residence house plans leading one to think that there might be something there. But we’ll know in a week or so.

Then the Conflicts of Interest Commissioner , The Hon H.A.D. Oliver must find that Mr Clark, in his dealings with Mr Palarinos, a man seeking a gaming licence from Mr Clark’s government, was not in a conflict of interest. Assuming, as I do, that Mr Clark got free labour from Mr Palarinos, it’s hard to imagine how he could be exonerated. Mr Oliver doesn’t have to find that Mr Clark broke the law – I’ve read the appropriate sections of the Criminal Code and it may well be that there was no breach - but that’s not the standard by which conflicts of interest in government are mentioned. Mr Vander Zalm was clearly in a conflict of interest in his last year in government yet was acquitted of the criminal charges arising out of that conduct.

Having overcome that hurdle, it seems that David Stockell’s case against the NDP will finally go to trial in September. It always amazes me how some things can move through the court system like a hot knife through butter yet others – this and Nisga’a come to mind – move like molasses in an Ottawa winter. It’s not just that Clark and the NDP might lose the case – if the Judge finds that there was dissembling about the budget but it was not so serious as to warrant setting the election aside that would still be pretty devastating for Clark and his government. What the judge finds as facts more than his actual decision will be important.

Through all this, Mr Clark has to maintain a caucus which is badly divided. Since Clark has politically ostracized his opposition – which has strong leadership with two ex cabinet ministers and a former parliamentary assistant to the premier – keeping his caucus from breaking into open revolt will not be easy. Keeping peace in that sort of family will not be easy. With no prospects to increase their wages by appointment to office this disgruntled group is like a cancer to the caucus.

There must also be a pretty spectacular rise in the polls. Unless Mr Clark can get the party back up to the respectable range – say 27-30% - he is going to face the same pressures he always has but perhaps worse. If he gets to, say, 30 with the Liberals at 40+ the argument will be that here we are reasonably close, we need new blood to put us over the top. That was, in part, the Harcourt syndrome. In other words the Premier may be in a spot where he can’t win.

The next thing the Premier must hope for is a screw-up by the Liberals. The NDP maintain, correctly I think, that Gordon Campbell is the best thing they have going for them. That it’s true is most unfair to Mr Campbell who has managed what Premier Clark could not … he’s held his caucus together through some pretty tough issues. Somehow, though, Bill Vander Zalm hit a nerve when he said “no one likes Gordon Campbell and no one knows why.”

Finally, there must be a very significant change in the economy. And that may be happening with lumber prices on the increase.

The problem for Mr Clark is that even if all these things break his way, it won’t likely be enough. His career as Premier has been one catastrophe after another. Even his vaunted Nisga’a treaty has more enemies than friends. And he must rely on mass amnesia by the voting. They must forget the one mess after another starting with Hydrogate and moving through the Fast Ferries catastrophe past the Convention Center fiasco into the cabinet resignations.

But it could happen. We have notoriously bad memories and the sad truth is that a screw-up of any proportions of Gordon Campbell close to an election will block out far more serious blunders of Clark’s way back in time.Frankly I don’t see how Glen Clark could get anywhere near the run of good luck it would take for him to have another shot at it.

But, in politics six weeks is an eternity – God only knows what changes in the situation could take place in 6 months or a year. Until you see the last spade full of earth on the coffin and the headstone in place, don’t ever count a politician in power out.