CKNW Editorial
for August 10, 1999

Now that the Reform party of Canada and I are in such a happy relationship, perhaps I can make a prediction – I think the party is on a long, slow, but steady decline.

To start with, they are a far western party only. They have minimal support in Saskatchewan and Manitoba and don’t show up on the radar screen east of Winnipeg. And the reason they have support in British Columbia is not the same as in Alberta. In that province there is still a pioneer rancher/oil man undercurrent of redneckism for which the Reform Party and the old Aberhart/Manning Socreds were so eminently suited. The British Columbia Social Credit party had the name but little else.

British Columbia was, until 1972, a Liberal province. It went Tory from 1972 until 1989 not because there had been some Damascus like conversion but because of Pierre Trudeau who made if clear that he could get elected in Ontario and Quebec only, so to hell with the rest. The Tories lost because of Mulroney plus the fact that the Liberals were too much within recent memory to vote for in 1993.

The Reform Party has two bases of support in B.C. There is the red neck, hang ‘em high, keep out the immigrants base and there are the Liberals and Red Tories who haven’t been able to vote for either of those their traditional choices for various reasons. This latter group is by far the larger and if Reform loses them, they will lose British Columbia.

I don’t believe that Reform will lose British Columbia but I do believe that they are a spent force nationally. They will not lose BC for several reasons.

They have some very good MPs who have done first class jobs at representing their constituents.

The Tories have not shown any real signs of life and won’t likely do so under Joe Clark who is seen, quite rightly, as a Central Canadian

The Liberals have not done enough work in this province to gain back much of their lost support.

Having said all that, both the Tories and Liberals can look for more fertile ground to work with now that the constitutional issue is in remission … for the fundamental difference between both of them and Reform is on that question. The Tories and Liberals favour special deals for Quebec, Reform calls for equality.

But my main point today is that whatever Reform wins it will be in the far west. The United Alternative has become an albatross around Preston Manning’s neck and it’s the reason that hurts – Preston Manning‘s sort of hard line, Horatio Alger, cracker barrel policy just isn’t selling where it has to sell, namely Ontario.

Judging from the latest refugee issue, there is a lot of support for the likes of John Reynolds and Ted White. The trouble is, from their vantage point, there are lots of people who have voted Reform who didn’t do so for these reasons. Despite how it may have sounded this past ten days, I don’t think I’m the only one in this province that believes in the rule of law and due process. I’ve watched the political process in this province long enough to know that the mailbag of a shrill right winger preaching intolerance in the name of expediency doesn’t have a long shelf life.

I think that after the next election Reform will have perhaps 40 seats, all in B.C. and Alberta and will be, after the Liberals, Bloc Quebecois and Tories (who’ll make big gains in Ontario) the fourth party.

And if I may digress as I end, I’ve taken a lot of abuse over my stand on this matter of the refugees, where I have called for due process of the law before anyone’s called a criminal or a bogus refugee. In all the years I’ve been in this goofy business I’ve never seen a stand so twisted around by those who disagree with me. I’ve been told that I am a bad Canadian, that I favour unrestricted immigration even though I don’t, and the issue is refugees, not immigration, and that because the vast majority is against me I should shut up.

Well, I can tell you I feel very good about standing up for due process in the face of what I’ve been hearing. If I am to be opposed – and I might say viciously opposed - by people who think that judgments on refugee matters ought to be made on the basis of media reports and the mailbags of redneck politicians it makes me feel warm all over to know who my enemies are. And I’ll tell you something else – I don’t give a damn if every listener to this program and indeed every British Columbian opposes me – I stand for not prejudging people, I stand for due process of law, and I stand against mob justice led by a party which can't, for excellent reasons, shake its reputation for mean-spiritedness and constantly playing the cheap shot to entertain the cheap seats.

I hope that when I face final judgment I’m not just judged by my friends but even more so by my enemies.