CKNW Editorial
for September 3, 1999

There will be, probably in November, an NDP leadership contest. That contest will likely have four or five challengers - perhaps a few more as backbenchers often use leadership conventions to get attention. These challengers will likely shake down to three serious ones, Gordon Wilson, Ujjal Dosanjh and Joy McPhail. Not knowing much about the internal workings of the NDP I hesitate to guess who will win but my gut instinct tells me it's between Dosanjh and McPhail with the latter getting the nod. When I say I'm not familiar with the inner workings of the NDP I was very familiar with the inner workings of the Social Credit Party and said that Brian Smith would win in 1986 at Whistler!

But my point today is not to pick a winner of the NDP leadership convention but to try and assess what that means. Could the NDP, with its utterly appalling record, mount a comeback? In politics, the answer to that question always has to be yes. It may be unlikely, but there are a lot of factors to consider, most of them unknown. Of course it will make a difference not only who wins the premier's chair but how the party comes out of that convention. We must remember the potential for a good deal of blood spilling although the major candidates will try to avoid this. But if the convention ends in bitterness, while that won't be fatal, it could make it almost impossible for the new premier to overcome inertia and get the party rolling.

But let's suppose, for sake of discussion, Joy McPhail wins and there is a good feeling coming out of the fight. It then becomes a two person contest - McPhail v Campbell.

Campbell has a cornucopia of election goodies - he will hardly know where to start. The NDP had two premiers, both of whom resigned amid scandals. the Hydrogate scandal, the fudget budgets, the horrible state of finances - on and on it goes. But this, curiously, puts Campbell in a bit of a bind. There is so much to work with but only one issue where he can tag McPhail personally - the last budget. Sure she was part of the government but she was generally seen as a good minister – at least by comparison.

Now the last budget is a pretty big issue but the voter is not likely to be terribly interested in regurgitating all the scandals so it really does get down to a management fight between McPhail and Campbell. Now you would think that plays right into Campbell's hands and I suppose it does. But McPhail is a tough cookie ... and she'll be using the old Glen Clark ploy ... which school would you close, Gordon? Which hospital?

Now none of this should really work. The NDP record is so bad that it's hard to imagine BC voters being that forgetful or that forgiving. But then's there's the "x" factor. What is going to happen in the campaign? How will the "debate" go. Will there be mistakes made by the Liberals? Well, of course there'll be mistakes but will there be enough to amount to one fatal mistake?

And then there is the "y" factor - Gordon Campbell himself. Bill Vander Zalm said it best - everyone dislikes Gordon Campbell and no-one knows why. That's an exaggeration of course as all these sort of statements are but it has enough of a ring of truth to be troubling. For one thing, somehow women don't like Gordon Campbell. I need not remind you that Joy McPhail is very much a woman.

Am I saying that the NDP will come back?  No ... I don't think that will happen. What I am saying is that it's not a no-brainer. For one thing there's a bit of the “new pitcher, new strikes” attitude amongst all of us. There will be a desire to give the new Premier a chance. If the new Premier gets some breaks in the economy and the Liberals screw up very badly, anything's a possibility.

The Liberals would do well to follow Robbie Burns sage advice - "keep right on to the end of the road". Or, as Yogi said, it ain't over 'til it's over”.