CKNW Editorial
for September 16, 1999

I heard Finance Minister Gordon Wilson yesterday talking about the need to restructure our tax structure in order to encourage business and offshore investment. On my show last week he came down hard on the Corporate Capital Tax. And it got me to thinking what would happen if Mr Wilson were to lead the NDP into the next election.  Don’t get me wrong – I’m not plumping for Wilson. I’m only speculating. In fact Mr Wilson may have a very hard time getting the nomination because political parties tend to be so conservative and only embrace real change when that’s the only way they can get elected … and then usually only after a sound defeat at the polls.

But let’s suppose it is Mr Wilson at the helm next time. In my opinion, he will give Gordon Campbell and his Liberals a much harder time than either Joy McPhail or Ujjal Dosanjh. That’s partly a matter of policy and partly a matter of personality.

Gordon Wilson is now starting to sing a combination love song/lullaby to the business community. And I’m not talking about big business but small business which is much bigger in numbers. Small businesses know that it is they, through their rent, which really pay the Corporate Capital Tax. It is they who prosper when capital, venture and otherwise, comes back to B.C. And it is they who feel the impact of taxes and fees more directly than does big business.

Usually the object of any leadership race is to find the person nearest the center. This is because the left will always hold its nose and vote NDP so the game is to take as much of the middle as possible. This is what will make Mr Wilson attractive to many New Democrats who put election far ahead of philosophical purity. And it is this which makes it tough for Gordon Campbell who is being portrayed as of the far right, one of the Howe Street pals. This may be unfair as hell – and who said politics is fair – but if the NDP can position Campbell as far right, (and bear in mind that because there is a far right challenger in Bill Vander Zalm Campbell will have to give the right some comfort) then Gordon Wilson looks like the moderate centrist most British Columbians are.

Then there is the campaign itself. Gordon Wilson, despite what he might say, hates Gordon Campbell’s guts … he hates him from another movie and wants revenge. He is also very articulate with a keen instinct for the jugular.

He will be very tough on Campbell and one must bear in mind that Wilson will have had perhaps a year as premier to already start cleaning up the NDP mess Campbell has rightly complained of.

These days we must also assess the debate. This is not a debate at all, of course, but that’s what TV wants us to believe so let’s go along with that term. Gordon Wilson is very good in this sort of forum. He thinks very quickly on his feet and is not easily rattled. Mr Campbell has not yet been tested. Frankly I would give Campbell the same advice Bill Bennett took. I advise Mr Campbell to say this election isn’t about showmanship and one-liners … I concede that to Mr Wilson. This election is about the past of the NDP and the future of the province and I will be out meeting the people of British Columbia blah, blah, blah. I won’t be there.

When you look back, fiscal responsibility has always been the #1 issue with British Columbians. Those politicians who aren’t balancing the books will try to pretend that fiscal matters don’t count but history is against them.

Wilson v Campbell would be quite a match-up to follow. At the end of the day British Columbians will likely say that for many reasons it’s time for a change. But a lot of things can happen in a political campaign – it’s like a short series in baseball or hockey. And if the NDP is to have any chance to win the next election, it would be with Gordon Wilson – especially if between now and then the NDP have a fiscal plan in place which looks to be working.

The chalk bettor will bet on Campbell but long-shots sometimes win – especially if the conditions are just right.