CKNW Editorial
for October 6, 1999

The squabbling for the non Liberal, non NDP vote is becoming very interesting and my way-out prediction of a few months ago is beginning to look like accurate prophecy. You may remember I foretold of a hung Parliament bringing about the strange bed-fellowship of the Liberals and Tories with Joe Clark becoming Prime Minister. However kooky that may seem, look at this scenario. There is a five way split of the seats with the Tories taking a big chunk in Ontario, the Bloc picking up a few, the NDP getting a bit bigger share than they did last time and the Reform Party basically holding its Alberta and BC support. Chretien, his party now in a minority, steps aside and in order to give Liberals a goodly time for finding a new leader, opts to unite with the Tories with Joe Clark interim Prime Minister. Don’t laugh this one out of the chat-room – it’s possible. In earlier days in Britain the much larger Conservative Party of Stanley Baldwin made a deal with Labour under Ramsay Macdonald which held for several years and through an election. For this to happen, Joe Clark has to get a good chunk of the Liberal seats in Ontario.

The whole bit about the Unity Movement, Reform and the Tories is becoming interesting. Originally the idea was to form an umbrella party attractive to all those to the right of center. So the theory went. The Unity Conference last February would force Preston Manning and Joe Clark into the same tent, their foots-soldiers following right behind. For this to occur, Joe Clark and Preston Manning had to agree -–they didn't. There is evidently considerable bad blood between them. But I think that the reason the Unity Movement’s crumbling is two fold – Reform supporters are telling their MPS that there is a fundamental gulf between the two parties on the constitutional front that is unbridgeable. Joe Clark is a Meechkin who thinks the public, misguided by powerful media forces, made a mistake with Charlottetown and that if he, as Prime Minister, were to appease Quebec with Meech III why Quebec and the far west would love it. Mr Manning knows better and is unwilling to toss out his equality of provinces theorem for anyone, much less Joe Clark.

Secondly, and this is part of the first reason I suppose, there is a regional dichotomy here. Reform’s support comes mainly from BC and Alberta which, for the most part, see Canada through a different prism than do small "c" conservatives in other parts of the country.

The Conservatives just had a convention which was notable for its lousy showing from British Columbia which is explainable because most of those who would otherwise be wooed to the Tories, are very much with Mr Manning on his constitutional position.

Mr Clark is giving lots of reason for his stubbornness not least of which is his goofy notion that the Tories are a national party. They are nothing of the sort and even when they were in power under Mulroney, their claim to represent the Far West rested more on their ability to suck up to the protest vote in Alberta and British Columbia than anything else. That protest went Reform in 1993 and 1997 and will probably do so again.

Things aren’t all that rosy for Reform in BC though. The middle-of-the-roader upon whom the Reform Party relies for its seats may not be as thrilled with Reform next time round. But if the Reform Party does lose seats in B.C., my bet is that they will go to the Liberals.

301 seats – what if they divide, roughly, along these lines. 70 Tories coming from Ontario and the Atlantic provinces, 60 Reformers, 65 Bloc Quebecois, 25 NDP and 80 odd to the Liberals. The Liberals, being the largest party, would be asked by the Governor General to form a government. They couldn’t do this without a partner and since Reform, and the Bloc are simply unacceptable to most Liberals, and the NDP wouldn’t give enough seats to make a government, why not an alliance with the Tories?

Now Jean Chretien is a born dictator and would not want to lead a government where he didn’t call all the shots. He could well see the benefits of golf and skiing over governing and want to step aside. Why not have Joe Clark the Ramsay Macdonald of Canadian politics serving as Prime Minister for an agreed one term while the Liberals re-group. The Liberals would argue that a coalition with the Conservatives would indeed make the government a national one. Joe Clark could argue that this boosts the morale of the Tories by a considerable amount and does give them a national presence. It would be a win-win for the Tories and Liberals who, let’s face it, have fewer differences between themselves than either of them have with each other party.

It’s a long shot for sure. But political parties, especially those that haven’t be in power for awhile can be depended upon to do all that’s necessary to climb to the top of what Disraeli called the greasy pole