CKNW Editorial
for November 9, 1999

The Liberals and those who propose supporting them in the next Provincial election can now make some plans. While nothing is certain in this life, it looks like Ujjal Dosanjh has a lock on the NDP leadership.

The first issue to be faced is the as yet uncalled by-election in Delta. Here is Bill Vander Zalm’s first test of his electoral strength … or at least that of the Reform Party. And this is a difficult situation to assess. For one thing, while Vander Zalm is no doubt in it to win – all politicians think they’re going to win – he is a realist and knows that what he must do is make a decent showing. The question is, what is a decent showing and I would say anything around the 20% mark would qualify. The Liberals will be tempted to throw a lot of resources into this race but what if they do, and Vander Zalm still does respectably?

By-elections are funny things. People know that no serious fallout will occur no matter how they vote and there may be people who will vote Reform in a by-election just because they’re not happy with Gordon Campbell, thus inflating Reform’s view of itself. But if Reform is going to hurt the Liberals it will not be in Vancouver seats and all Vander Zalm needs do is show the people in "outer" BC that Reform is a player.

I believe profoundly that the Liberals have made a key mistake in sticking with their name. There a hell of a lot of federal Liberals in the provincial party as there were in the old Social Credit party – the trouble is they stick out like a sore thumb in the Campbell Liberals whereas with the Socreds everyone knew that was a provincial party over which the federal Liberals had no influence whatsoever. Even worse, federal Liberals who don’t get messed up with the provincial party are taken as doing so anyway.

The impending leadership of Mr Dosanjh poses another serious problem for Mr Campbell. Clearly, the strategy of any NDP leader will be to convince voters that he or she disapproves of what Glen Clark did. That’s indeed how Clark himself suggested it be done. That is going to pose a serious problem for Joy McPhail because she was an intimate part of government from 1991 onwards. It’s not as big a problem for Corky Evans but I don’t think he really has a chance. It poses an awkward problem for Gordon Wilson since one of the major items is the Fastcat ferries and he’s had it within his power to do something about them since they were launched … even though it may not have been practical for him to do so.

Ujjal Dosanjh, though a member of cabinet, is able to say that he was not part of Treasury Board when the decision was made and may not even have been in cabinet.

Don’t misunderstand me here – I don’t think anyone associated with that government can divest himself of responsibility but it’s a question of optics and politics and those two things go hand in hand.

When the next election comes – and I think it should be soon after February 20 – perhaps in early April – and assuming that Ujjal Dosanjh is Premier it will be a whole new ballgame. It may in the end turn out to be a slam dunk for Campbell but going in it will be anything but. Mr Campbell will try to remind all of us about the nine long years of bad government but that won’t be as easy a sell as it is now. Mr Dosanjh is a very decent sort of bloke under whose skin exists a very tough political hide. It will be hard to slang him because he looks like a paragon of virtue. That he isn’t is not the point – we’re talking political optics here.

I don’t know what strategy Mr Campbell will adopt but he starts from the position that for reasons that are difficult to fathom he is not well liked or trusted. Bill Bennett wasn’t liked either but he was trusted – people saw in him an aura of competence. Mr Dosanjh is both likeable and avuncular enough to have people trusting him in spite of his government’s appalling record.

On the record and on the odds, it ought to be a no brainer for Campbell and his Liberals. But that’s not how the Liberals had better play it. They’d better come up with a strategy and, unlike last time, stick with it.

Afraid to lose their financial support, the Liberals in getting divorced insisted on keeping their married name, and they’d better hope that the word "Liberal" name doesn’t hurt them … for it only has to to the extent of 5 or 6% in a close election, which shows the idiotic gamble the party has taken in keeping their name.

If the Liberal name loses key seats to Reform in the interior Gordon Campbell will get the blame but, then, that should be old hat to him. The losers will be those who want to see the back of the NDP for a long time to come.