CKNW Editorial
for January 5, 2000

The interview with Moe Sihota yesterday morning was quite illuminating, I had often been puzzled at just how NDP leadership conventions were handled.

As I understand what Mr Sihota said, there will be roughly 1500 members there of which 1/3 will be non elected but entitled to be there because of the constitution. Of the remaining 2/3 they will be stacked in favour of Lower Mainland delegates because of the way increased membership increases the number of delegates each constituency is allowed to send. For a party with the word "democratic" in it, this doesn't sound very democratic to me.

The Parti Quebecois, the Liberal Party of BC and the Progressive Conservative Party have all come into the electronic age thus permitting all members of their party to vote. The New Democratic Convention is more a formalized "fix" than an expression of democracy. It's interesting to look at the fight for the leadership in this light. Fully 1/3 will come from Unions, youth, the party bosses, sitting MLAs, women’s groups and the like. This means that the party establishment has a huge chunk of the action. Added to this, of course, will be union members elected at larger who will tend to vote as they are advised. This gives the candidate of the establishment a very big edge.

The delegates at large will be selected at the constituency level and in many cases will give their loyalty to the person who signed them. I have no way of knowing how many at large delegates are committed to which candidates. But delegates at large generally feel themselves committed to vote for their favourite candidate for the first ballot only. Even then, as Flora Macdonald proved in the Conservative leadership convention of I think 1983 but perhaps it was 1976, you can never count on delegates who promise to support you - the "Macdonald syndrome" has found its way into the political lexicon meaning the degree to which committed delegates will lie.

Not long ago I would have said that Ujjal Dosanjh had a lock on the leadership but Mr Sihota's evidence gives me pause to re-consider. If the Attorney-General has enough for a first round victory, that of course ends the matter. But suppose he doesn't? If we assume that the "establishment" are all in the Anybody But Ujjal camp and all support one other candidate - and that seems close to being a reasonable assessment - it's hard to believe that he could win 750 out of the last 1000 votes. If he comes in at, let's say, 650 votes the question is can he come up with the rest on Ballot 2? My reading of it is that Dosanjh has little second round support. He is the first choice of many but the second choice of few. That leaves three others to consider.

I, frankly, don't think that Corky Evans has a prayer despite the call from Victoria on yesterday's open line. I think he will surprise but he can't win. I'm beginning to think that Joy McPhail is also a not starter and the question is whether or not she'll even be in a second ballot. For second round support to swing to her, she must, of course be still in the race and that's sounding more and more doubtful.

The man picking up the support - and already with the support of Moe Sihota if my tummy feeling means anything - is Gordon Wilson. I try to put myself at the convention - and I'll be there, by the way - and visualize what will happen. I see Dave Barrett putting Gordon Wilson's name in nomination then standing beside him, one arm around him and the other raising his hand in triumph. If that happens, it's a hell of a leg up for Mr Wilson.

It's obviously too soon to know but that tummy of mine is telling me more and more that Gordon Wilson, capping several miraculous political survivals, will be our next premier.

I mean, have I ever been wrong?