CKNW Editorial
for January 10, 2000

It was former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson, I think, who said that in politics six weeks is an eternity. Well, how about six days … or even six hours.

Last week many pundits, including me, saw Gordon Wilson as the next Premier of the Province. For me at any rate this was stated to be just a guess because there is no way an outsider to the strange electoral system the NDP has to really understand who has strength and where.

The thoughts I had were predicated on the fact that there is obviously a strong Anybody but Ujjal movement and that it was led by people with considerable clout. The fact that Dave Barrett, the old socialist of old socialists, would endorse Wilson and could clearly swing Moe Sihota and whatever strength he has to the Wilson side made it look not quite a slam dunk but pretty certain. Now Joy McPhail quits and throws her support to Dosanjh.

On a personal basis that’s interesting when you think about it. One of the reasons Ms McPhail is on the sidelines is that while Dosanjh’s inactivity was keeping Glen Clark clinging to power Dosanjh’s people were signing members like crazy in anticipation of the leadership becoming open. During that time Ms McPhail, either honourably or stupidly – take your choice – was not doing any politicking. When Ms McPhail quit cabinet last July she had to know that Dosanjh’s people were hard at work and, in hindsight, her sabbatical to Spain looks politically foolish. At any event she is out and she is supporting Ujjal Dosanjh.

What has been fascinating here is the great patience shown by Jim Sinclair, President of the BC Federation of Labour and other union leaders. While they know that patience is wisdom in these matters it’s not so easy to bide that time and hold that tongue. Where the large labour union bloc goes is, of course, crucial.

The conventional wisdom has always been that, a couple of unions apart, most labour would support Ms McPhail. That conventional wisdom may not be all that wise because the underlying reason for the assumption was that Ken Georgetti, who is no longer here, was a McPhail supporter.

I can only speculate as a rank outsider to the process. I have no idea how the delegates are going to break down. It would seem from what we know that the large lower mainland constituencies will outnumber some interior ones by as much as 9-1 and it is said that Ujjal Dosanjh has a lock on most of the big constituencies. For Gordon Wilson to win he has to make that up by taking most of the institutional delegates like Trade unions, women, Young NDPers, MLAs and MPs and so on. The question is can he do that now that Joy McPhail will be rallying her support amongst these groups to Mr Dosanjh.

There is another crucially important factor that all political junkies know. What will the atmosphere of the convention be? And how will it change as events change. Will new polls, bound to be published just as the delegates vote, profoundly affect the outcome as they did for Bill Vander Zalm in 1986?

It’s beginning to have a strange air to it. It seems to be a battle between the new vision and the old guard, Wilson representing the former and Dosanjh the latter with the great paradox being that Dave Barrett, the oldest of the old guard is supporting Wilson. The trouble Mr Wilson has is no one is quite sure just what his new vision is. As Vaughn Palmer put it so well last Saturday MR Wilson has had many visions declared from many different positions over the years.

What about the entry of one or two others into the race? They won’t alter things much except to ensure that there is a second battle clash between the two favourites. A newcomer or two would likely erode a little bit of Mr Dosanjh’s first round strength but at the end of the day the delegates are going to have to choose one or the other.

The real importance of what Joy McPhail did is to confound those who thought that she would do what Dave Barrett wanted. Those who thought that way – and I might be included – were to that extend anyway ill-informed.

It would seem that Ms McPhail does not see Gordon Wilson as the way she wants the NDP to go and she may just have done enough to see that it doesn’t happen.

When it gets right down to it the argument is really about which skipper gets the honour to go down with the ship. But it will also tell us whether or not the NDP will stay as an old line socialist party – as they have done nationally – or whether they will try, as best as they can try with Gordon Wilson, to be like Tony Blair’s New Labour.