CKNW Editorial
for May 15, 2000

The problem faced by the Canadian Alliance in British Columbia is an interesting one.

If you look at the voting patterns of British Columbians since 1972 you would think it was a pretty solid conservative province. After all it voted either PC or Reform pretty solidly in all elections since Trudeaumania in 1968. I think that fact is misleading because it reflects not a commitment to "conservatism" so much as a dislike of the Liberals who nevertheless maintain a pretty solid 25% base support.

The problem with the Liberals is the problem with Ottawa and in recent history goes back to the days of T.D. Pattullo and Gerry McGeer – that is to say to the thirties. The Liberals had good elections since then – especially in the 40s and 50s but as they began more and more to govern with the two provinces that gave them victory, Ontario and Quebec, in mind with barely a passing thought for other regions they lost support in BC. In the 70s the swing to the Tories wasn’t for philosophical reasons but because people were pissed off with Trudeau and his attitude.

When the Tories won under Mulroney in 1984 and 1988 they had huge support in BC but that was because voters thought the Tories would really be concerned about BC’s place in the nation. With Meech Lake and Charlottetown it was clear that, when it got down to cases, the Tories were no different than the Liberals. Hence the wipeout of the Tories in 1993 and the rise of Reform.

Now we have a new phenomenon occurring and I’m not sure that I can see how it will play out. The Canadian Alliance seems to be operating on the assumption that British Columbia will support them no matter what because they like their economic policies and their right wing position. This could be a fatal assumption. For unless I badly miss my guess, the average British Columbian is a pretty middle of the road soul who voted Tory, as I indicated, because the Liberals couldn’t have cared less about them and Reform because the Tories let them down. What happens if, after the Canadian Alliance selects its leader it appears that it doesn’t care about BC any more either, it now having become an Ontario dominated party?

You heard Tom Long last week – he clearly hasn’t the foggiest notion of what makes us tick. Even Preston Manning and Stockwell Day have to play the Ontario card pretty forcefully if they’re to win Ontario support. And what this has mean is a playing down of those things that seemed to be aimed at BC support.

It boils down to this. None of the leadership hopefuls are going to go into Ontario and state that they see the problem of our system being that 50%+1 of the House of Commons has 100% of the power and that this must change. They won’t say that because it’s Ontario that runs the country under this unfair system.

But don’t we still have to vote the Canadian Alliance anyway?

Perhaps not. If the Liberals want to strangle the Alliance at its birth it will do two things.

First off, it will say look here, we understand your frustrations and the way to fix it is to send us some more Liberals so you will have a stronger voice in Ottawa. Not a new nor especially stimulating argument but remember it will come under circumstances where we’ll have serious doubts that BC will be especially well heard by a Canadian Alliance Party now in thrall to Ontario. Secondly, might not people be no more willing to put up with right wing bottom feeders like John Reynolds and say I don’t like the preachy, shrill, indeed harsh aspect of the Alliance and since they are no more on BC’s side that the Liberals I’m no worse off voting Liberal than the Alliance?

This is the dilemma the Alliance finds itself in. To gain support in Ontario it must risk losing it in British Columbia.

This problem for the Alliance would be exacerbated if the Liberals went into the next election under Paul Martin and the best hope the Alliance has is that the Liberals, because of their indifference to matters outside Central Canada, won’t have the wit to see this.