CKNW Editorial
for July 7, 2000

This Saturday we’ll know who will lead the Canadian Alliance but for the purposes of this discussion I will assume it is Stockwell Day. This is a dangerous assumption because this vote is unlike a convention vote where you can be all but assured that 99% of those who voted in Round one will vote in round two and you can be equally sure that in round two there won’t be any additions. In the Alliance Race you not only don’t have those assurances, you can rely on the fact that the numbers of voters will be quite different and that you will have people voting in the second vote that didn’t vote in the first and people from the first, notably Tom Long supporters, who won’t be bothered for the second. Having said all that, you would have to assume that the Day supporters will stay for the most part because they are the rebels and that Day has every bit as much chance to pick up new voters as does Mr Manning.

But assuming that Day wins, then what?

I think he has run a very good campaign and has impressed a lot of people. He had a slow start on this show but I put that down to bad advice. I think he was told to persist in trying to answer questions he wished to have asked without knowing that I would stick to one question for the whole interview if I didn’t think there had been a responsive answer. He was ready the second time and I suspect that at that point he decided that it would be much better if he took control of his own interviews and statements.

Mr Day has been asked a lot of questions about his personal beliefs which I think is fair dinkum – I also think he answered them well. This is not to say I’m satisfied but I’m not voting. I have a lot of trouble with any strongly religious people in public life and I need only point to the problems Bill Vander Zalm found himself in on the abortion issue.

I think that Mr Day has, in a roundabout way, been fortunate that he attracted so much adverse attention because it has enabled him to show what he’s made of under fire … and it would seem that while Mr Manning has played the game above board, some of his supporters have not … and people will always wonder, and I reasonably, whether, for example, John Cummins veiled suggestion that Mr Day is anti Semitic was in fact approved by Mr Manning. I don’t say that it was – I just don’t know. But I can tell you from my own experience that you don’t usually see press releases from a MP in a candidates camp going out without the knowledge of that candidate. If they do, you have to wonder how well organized that campaign team is organized.

What is of even more interest is how Mr Day will fare as leader. He’ll not have a seat, of course, but that will happen quickly enough. What he will do, however, is, by his presence, put the other leaders under the microscope. I should really say the Liberal leaders since both Joe Clark and Alexa McDonough are hopeless and don’t count for anything and the BQ is a Quebec only party.

I believe that Jean Chretien will call an early election because he knows that when Mr Day gets in the House the Reform Party will look like they just partook at the Fountain of Youth. Mr Chretien already looks old and tired and his popularity has not been his own so much as the unpopularity of the rest of the leaders. After all, presented with the question who do you think will make the best Prime Minister and two of the three alternatives are Joe Clark and Alexa McDonough, is it any wonder Mr Chretien does well?

But what about a quick Liberal switch to Paul Martin. I think he’s a John Turner in the making. He will be slaughtered in western Canada if only because he supported Meech and Charlottetown and while that may not be an issue now, it will be before Mr Day is through. And, though barely 60, he will look old as will his party set against Mr Day.

The icing on the cake for Mr Day might well be found in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. I don’t think he can count on many if any seats there but he may well make sufficient impact to help the Bloc in Quebec at the expense of the Liberals and help the Tories and NDP in Atlantic Canada.

But as everyone knows, Ontario is where the action is. I think that, outside the cities, Mr Day will do well and that he’ll even surprise in some urban areas. The Liberal/Tory stranglehold on the country through Central Canadian votes has gone on long enough. I sense that there is enough of a distaste for the Liberals in Ontario to translate itself into votes for Mr Day.

Much depends upon what Mr Manning and Mr Long do. If, as they promise, they rally around Mr Day and convince Premier Mike Harris of Ontario to give his blessing, Mr Day has a shot at a minority government.

As I have said, there are many things about the Alliance that trouble me deeply. There is a meanness, a sharp edge to them that makes me uncomfortable. But an Alliance victory might well be what saves the country for it will mean that politically the country will no longer be divided geographically.

I close with this observation about the polls. They don’t mean a damned thing and never do until a few days before the election. As I pointed out earlier, the choices have been so limited that Jean Chretien is always bound to look good. It’s Mair’s Axiom II at work:- you needn’t be a 10 in politics, you can be a three if everyone else is a two. Contrary to what I’ve said in the past, I believe Mr Day is more than a three and if he surprises all the pundits by stealing the Alliance for Mr Manning he might just surprise them again by winning the election.