CKNW Editorial
for July 11, 2000

A bit more this morning on Stockwell Day and why I think he'll win at least a minority government after the next election.

First off, Jean Chretien has a difficult choice. If he goes this Fall he will be allowing Mr Day to ride his momentum and if he waits until Spring, Day will have plenty of chance to heal the wounds in his caucus and get his election machinery in order. I think the election will be this Fall because Chretien knows that if Stockwell Day gets in the House of Commons through a by election people will get to see the "young Turk" in action against the aging warrior and that the comparison will not be flattering. This could lead to even more dissension in the Liberal ranks and a renewed effort towards the leadership by Paul Martin.

For my prediction to come true, three things must happen. First, Mr Day has to sweep the western provinces. This I think he will do and if David Anderson retires, as seems to be the case, only Vancouver Quadra and possibly Kingsway will go Liberal. I don't think they will go Liberal if Mr Day has the momentum I think he'll have.

Then Mr Day has to take 50 or more seats in Ontario. That sounds like a tall order considering that the Liberals have all but one of those 103 seats but it's important that what happened last time is history. The Liberals took all those seats because the Tories and NDP were so pathetic and there was no appetite for the Reform Party. This time it's Mr Day, who after all is a native Ontarian, who leads a new party and the Tories and NDP are still led by unbelievably incompetent and uninspiring leaders. Moreover, Stockwell Day will have the Ontario Big Blue Machine behind him in fact, if not officially. I don't think the Tories will even be a vote-splitting factor and I think Mr Day can win those 50 seats.

But thirdly, he must either win more than fifty seats in Ontario or make serious inroads into Quebec and Atlantic Canada to be the largest party. By no means do I deny the possibility of the Alliance getting more than 50 seats in Ontario because when there's political fever in the air, unexpected things happen. But I think there is a very good chance that Mr Day can sell himself in Atlantic Canada. After all, they elected 20 or so Tories last time not because voters were enamoured of the Tories but because they were mad at the Liberals and liked Jean Charest. Well, Charest is gone and the woebegone Joe Clark is the leader. The question is whether or not the Liberals will be able to buy those Tory votes.

Perhaps they can – never underestimate the ability of any voter, much less a maritimer, to be bought, especially if it's someone else's tax dollar doing the buying. But Mr Day is a fresh young face. And if he gets on a bit of a roll elsewhere in the country why shouldn't he make some inroads in Atlantic Canada? It will take hard work but winning the Alliance leadership was hard work. If Mr Day can put together the right team, including some key people from the Atlantic provinces I think he can do well.

Sure it's a long shot. If you're going to bet, get decent odds. I'm not going so much on hard facts as I am a tummy feel that the country as a whole wants a new face and se4om new politics. Those things Mr Day can provide.

Do I hope he wins?

I suppose I do even though on social issues I'm much more to the left than he and his party. Moreover, the thought that some of Day's colleagues might actually be in a position to bring forth their far right, ungenerous policies gives me the creeps. But as you know, the issue that bothers me far more than any social issues - critically important as they are - is the union of our country. We cannot go on forever with a system that deprives all but Ontario and Quebec a say in how the country is run. I shudder to think of what might happen if we have yet another parliament divided strictly on a regional basis.

Given the lousy choices we have - the Tories and NDP being nonentities led by nonentities, leaving just the Liberals and Canadian Alliance to duke it out - Stockwell Day looks like the better bet.