CKNW Editorial
for January 30, 2001

The next election will be called on or about about the 21^st of March for on or about the 30^th of April. Right after the Throne Speech and the budget. Unless, of course, Premier Dosanjh simply decides that he’ll go right to the end and hope something good turns up.

He is smarter than that and he knows that if he postpones the election until the bitter end it will make an angry electorate even angrier. He also knows that his party is in a survival mode and that he must fight for every seat, very much including his own. He will therefore put his very best foot forward, no matter how battered it is.

The strategy for the NDP is to take advantage of the fact that the public has not warmed to Gordon Campbell and in fact, to a large measure mistrusts him. For those who make comparisons to long ago, the difference between how the voters felt about Bill Bennett and how they feel about Gordon Campbell is that for all the lack of warmth of Bennett (who in fact is a very warm person) they trusted him. That’s a very important distinction.

In order to understand the NDP strategy better, one need only look at the Liberal strategy as pronounced in recent days by their chief strategist, Patrick Kinsella. Now Mr Kinsella, who is a very nice man I’m told, has the track record of an also ran at the racetrack. His only possible claim to fame was the 1983 – that’s 18 years ago folks – election upset by Bill Bennett. The trouble is, those in the know will tell you that that campaign was really run by Bud Smith.

In all events, Mr Kinsella tells us that he will spend the first half of the campaign on the NDP track record and the last on the Liberal platform.

Let me tell you how the NDP will deal with that. And it must be borne in mind that the NDP are seeking to get back their core support … then hope for the best.

They will say, "yes, we admit that we really screwed up on the fast ferries. In fact the premier has, on every possible occasion, apologized to the public for that massive mistake of Glen Clark’s. We goofed … badly … and we are truly ashamed of ourselves. But Glen Clark isn’t the premier any more – Ujjal Dosanjh is and since he’s been premier we’ve had two successive balanced budgets … in fact we’ve had surpluses. What we must do now, as British Columbians, is not dwell on the past but compare products for the future."

I don’t know how well this will work with the public at large – probably not well. But it may well work with the 30% base that the NDP normally commands. And if it does that, Mr Dosanjh is in position to take advantage of any Liberal screw-up, for which they have the 1996 debacle to give them hope.

When it comes to the second half of the campaign, where Mr Kinsella will be doing positive ads about positive programs, Mr Dosanjh will demand that Mr Campbell do two things … first make positive commitments re privatization, two tiered health care and such like and second, show the people how he can cost out his promises yet bring forth a large reduction in taxes.

If he is smart, Mr Dosanjh will do a couple more things. He will announce a new partnership with Greater Vancouver over transit. Now that George Puil, Translink and the GVRD have made themselves thoroughly unpopular with everyone and have totally screwed up the entire transit system present and future, here is a golden opportunity for Mr Dosanjh to sing a compelling love song to the two million plus Vancouverites who face daily gridlock even on the weekends.

In a brilliant move to keep the condominium conservationists quiet while allaying the fears of the great hunters in the rest of the province, Mr Dosanjh will set up a commission to deal with such matters as bears, great white and grizzly, parks present and future and all that stuff. He will appoint just the right people both urban and rural and hope that this keeps most environmental issues off the table … just as has been done with offshore oil and gas exploration. I know something about this – in 1979, in order to get uranium mining off the table I appointed a Royal Commission to look into it. That commission might just have won that squeaky win for the Socreds in May of that year. This kind of move doesn’t stop debate but it sure as hell cools it down.

Can these or any other clever moves save the NDP’s bacon?

I very much doubt it. But they could give the NDP 15-20 seats which is what they need to stay alive.

To be fair to Mr Kinsella, he has a very tough job. For the NDP are like the stock that falls to ten cents – you can’t possibly drive it any lower but any good news can make it bounce back with investors who with the amnesia voters are famous for, forget how it got so low in the first place. In a sense there is sort of a role reversal here … the NDP are so low in the polls that they will be running like an opposition trying to get into government.

What would I do if I were Gordon Campbell?

I would, low key, keep reminding the voters of the past ten years and repeatedly ask the voting public if they’ve had enough yet.

My promises?

Only one. We will manage the province well and restore investor confidence.

Of course they should spell out a program – that would be the honourable thing to do. That’s what the media would like. That’s what many voters would like, especially NDP voters. But this is politics, folks. To win you use your best weapons until it’s obvious they aren’t working any more. And the Liberal’s best weapon is not Gordon Campbell … and it’s not any plans Mr Campbell may have. The Liberal’s best weapon is that for 10 years the NDP has been the worst government, by a country mile, ever to run this province. To stick with that one note for forty days will be tough … much pressure will be brought by many people including me to spell out future programs.

But the idea in politics is not to please the pundits but to win. That requires single-mindedness of purpose and a lot of discipline – qualities those who want to see the backs of the NDP better hope are possessed by Mr Kinsella and Mr Campbell’s Liberals.