CKNW Editorial
for March 19, 2001

Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum. And the vacuum being created by the NDP right across the land, even in Saskatchewan where the NDP is really the Liberal Party in drag and always has been, will be filled one way or another.

It’s been substantially filled nationally by the Liberal Party. Although Liberals never speak out against the Mother Party, and he is no exception, retired Senator Ray Perrault must be horrified at what he sees happening to his party. It has been driven out of the center by the right – Stockwell Day’s version of the right may be far out but the Tories, with whom he must unite or perish, solidly occupy the center and even have tiny shoots going to the left from time to time. Since the Chretien herd of trained seals knows that a revived right of center coalition would beat them, they must continue to occupy the center left while sowing all the seeds of discord they can amongst Tories and the Alliance. Happily for the porker from Shawinigan, the demonstrated incompetence of Stockwell day and the obsolescence of Joe Clark makes his job so easy that he can easily survive personal scandal that, in a decent democracy, would send the scandalee to the showers in shame.

What’s going to be interesting is what happens in B.C. If we assume a defeat of wipeout proportions on the NDP, what then?

A couple of things. Mr Campbell will either have to modify his tax cuts policy in the first year or two or be in deep trouble when he goes back to the people in 2005. This will be the legacy of the NDP. We’ve already seen a sign of that when, last Friday, Gary Farrell-Collins, the next Minister of Finance, refused my invitation to dump all over the NDP for more than doubling B.C.’s debt over the past nine years. If the Liberals are to survive fiscally, after the mess they’ll be left, they’ll need some wriggle room and the provincial debt is where they’ll have to find it, at least in the short term.

But back to the vacuum. Assume less than 10 NDP MLAs after the election and that could well be erring on the side of generosity. Who’s to lead them back to the promised land? Might they even become an irrelevant force?

Much of that depends upon what Gordon Campbell does. If he vigorously tackles the social problems in the province – Children and Families, Mental Health, the Downtown Eastside of Vancouver, Medicare and the like – and does so forcefully and with a high profile he will likely see the NDP off for as near as you get to forever in politics. These were supposed to be the NDP’s strong areas and it’s where they have been at their worst. If the NDP, in opposition, find a socially conscious government across the aisle their task may prove next to impossible.

This leaves two alternatives in the shorter term – the Green Party and the Unity Party. Both have attractive young leaders but both carry with them institutional baggage – for the Greens it’s the loony wing of the environmental movement and for the Unity Party it’s the Christian right.

I don’t believe that the Unity Party can elect anyone and the polls say the same for the Greens but there is, for both of them, a teeny little window of opportunity. If their leaders can horn in on the leaders’ televised debate there’s always the chance that a wild swing, as happened with Gordon Wilson in 1991, will land. Then you might see a new force in the legislature to be reckoned with in the days to come.

But in all likelihood, Gordon Campbell will have the opportunity to rule forever, which in political parlance means for two terms. To do that he needs to take a leaf from the book of the first modern successful premier – Bill Bennett.

Ask those in the field about the Bennett years. While things are never good amongst our disadvantaged, it was better under Bennett than ever before or since. There was a commitment and strong ministers kept that commitment. What Bennett knew was this - a simple message but a hard rule to follow. The right wing in the party had nowhere else to go as long as he maintained a business friendly atmosphere. There was no need to curry favour with Howe Street and he knew it. Where the hearts and votes had to be captured was the center left and until Bill Vander Zalm, the latter day Socreds ploughed that field very successfully. Even Vander Zalm tried – the trouble is he was seen as far right wing and in politics perception is reality.

The first year of the Campbell government will be interesting. If you see strong ministers of Social Services, Health, Attorney-General and especially Children and Families you’ll see a government that will be around for at least two terms. If, on the other hand, you see the social issues of the province ignored or lightly dealt with you will see what Bill Bennett always knew – the rank and file voter of British Columbia cares and cares very deeply about social issues. They may not care much at the B.C. Business Council or the Vancouver Board of Trade – I’ll catch hell from Carole Taylor for this – but the great center mass of people who elect governments, or un-elect them, care very deeply.

Gordon Campbell is a self confessed admirer of Bill Bennett’s – if he is also a disciple we may see the first multiple term premier since 1983.