CKNW Editorial
for April 6, 2001

As we head into the election the Liberals face few problems. Surely not even Gordon Campbell can blow a 49 point lead. Perhaps the one difficulty they do face is in how much to tell the public about their program.

At one time governments-in-waiting could solemnly intone that they would have to wait until they gained power before making any promises because they would only then know how much was in the till. Then, of course, once in, they would shriek that things were much, much worse than they supposed so there would be an immediate freeze on all new programs. This line of defence is really not open to the Liberals since, thanks in large measure to their doggedness, legislation has made the accounting process pretty open and they know now what the state of affairs will be.

Some items of income will, of course, remain speculative. The PST, for one thing, depends upon the economy and how much people go shopping. But the Liberals, to all intents and purposes, know as much now as they ever will.

A prudent electorate, knowing this, will ask some pointed questions. The trouble is, we’re not a prudent electorate, are we? We want the present government out and glibly say "what the hell, the new bunch can’t possibly be anything else but an improvement." I would argue that we should demand answers nonetheless for that. For after the election, there will be a new load of tootsies to hold to the fire and we should have some fuel for that fire, namely some commitments.

I was talking to Gerry Scott from the David Suzuki Society yesterday … he is an old NDP insider though he is out of that game now. I made the point that 20 years ago you could throw a lot of bland out onto the airwaves and in the newspapers and get away with it. You could talk about budgets in the most shallow way. People weren’t well informed and didn’t care to be.

Things are very different now. People are indeed informed – most importantly, the opinion makers are informed. By opinion makers I’m not talking about the media but those to whom people instinctively turn for rational analysis.

Gerry made a telling point by adding that people are more cynical about politics these days and thus simply will not trust the word of any politician on any matter whatever.

The Liberals are going to have their hands full if they achieve anything like the landslide the numbers indicated. The very last thing a leader needs is a huge, under-utilized backbench. Even with simply a good majority it’s difficult to keep discipline. Everybody wants something to show the folks back home and unless the leader has a clear policy that everyone has bought into, he will have great difficulties with his caucus. That’s why it is important not only for the public but for Mr Campbell himself that clear policy guidelines be in place.

Can the Liberals come up with a sizeable tax cut given the fuzziness, to be charitable, in the NDP’s budget, which they’ll inherit? Will there be more money available to fix the healthcare system as Liberals have promised?

What about Children and Families – is there the policy and the money behind that policy to keep Liberal pledges?

Of greater interest – for this is the litmus test of the Liberals’ commitment to fiscal honesty – will the funding commitments promised be achievable without driving the province further into debt?

I don’t suppose it matters to anyone listening, except the NDP supporters, but I don’t believe that any government, starting now, can spend even what the NDP have budgeted for, much less what the promises will be, without borrowing to do it. I don’t think the revenues will be there and by the time labour and court settlements are made, the expenses will be much higher. Moreover, there has been no allowance made for the high ticket wage settlements that are to come nor for the damages to be assessed in the Carrier case. Of even more moment, who knows what forestry revenues there will be if the softwood lumber issue goes badly?

I was in a government that went through this experience. The first Bill Bennett government simply gritted its teeth and did some tough things in the first year of its mandate. It will be interesting to see if a Campbell government does the same.

I think what will happen is a sense, first off, of euphoria. It’s a new government, a new dawn, and the business atmosphere will quickly improve. Then, I think, will come a tax cut but changes in healthcare and the matters I mentioned earlier will be largely smoke and mirrors. Thereafter, how the Liberals do financially will depend largely on the outcome of the softwood lumber dispute. If forestry goes into the tank in this province, all the smiling faces in the world won’t put enough money in the provincial till for the Liberals to do much.

If there was one thing I would commit to if I were Gordon Campbell it would be this – out of existing ministries I would carve a Ministry for Business Development and make it a senior ministry in the charge of someone who has experience and contacts in the business community and who has the mandate to diversify BC’s economy. I don’t envisage a repeat of the old Economic Development Ministry which devoted itself largely to mega projects but one that declared war on Alberta, Washington and Oregon and which is given the tools with which to fight such a war.