CKNW Editorial
for April 18, 2001

I was somewhat surprised that during yesterday's open line there was so much support for third parties in the forthcoming election. I'm not unmindful of the distinct possibility that, for example, Unity Party members have been encouraged to phone open line shows. Nothing wrong with that ... encouraged the same thing when I was in politics. It does raise the question, though, whether there might be a backlash against the Liberals manifesting itself. I don't for a moment think that third parties could split the vote with the same consequences as happened in 1996. The antipathy towards the NDP is just too great for that. Moreover in this e3lection a third party, the Green party, threatens the NDP more than it does the Liberals.

It could happen of course notwithstanding what I or anyone else thinks. If the Liberals make a complete hash of the campaign - I mean a complete has not just a screw-up as happened in 1996 perhaps third party votes could have the effect of destroying them again. As I say, I don't think that will happen.

What must be understood, of course, is that to the extent that this is possible is Gordon Campbell's fault. He has created that risk because he wants it both ways - support of the federal Liberals and the appearance to all others that those same Liberals have no real say in how the party is run. This election could be strictly between the Liberals and the NDP - as it was between the Bill Bennett Socreds and the NDP if Gordon Campbell had shown the guts and leadership to give his party a name that didn't drive many British Columbians up the wall.

What is truly fascinating is that in a year when you would have thought that the battle lines would well and truly be drawn between the forces of evil and the forces of good, there are so many people prepared to indulge in the luxury of supporting a third party. That the appetite is there isn't surprising - that it is not suppressed in the common goal to get rid of the NDP is surprising. What's going to tell the story is, of course, the televised Leaders' debate. It will be, of course, an exercise in ganging up on Gordon Campbell. He is seen as the main opponent although the leader of the Greens will no doubt be critical of the NDP's record on environmental matters. Both the Green leader, Adrian Carr and the Unity leader, Chris Delaney are articulate attractive candidates. They will both make much of the shortcomings of both leaders and may look good doing it.

What is also fascinating is the thought that one or two third party candidates may win seats. If the NDP flame out, a good showing by a third party might have long term consequences.

At this point I stick with my prediction - 75 Liberals and 4 NDP. I think Joy McPhail will hold her seat as will Jenny Kwan and the Premier plus a seat from the Victoria area where civil servants fear for their jobs if the Liberals win..

If you're looking for a way out, long term absolutely no hope prediction see two Greens elected and an amalgamation of the provincial NDP and the Greens under Adrian Carr's leadership forming what opposition there is. For that bet get 10,000 to 1 and don't bet more than $10.