CKNW Editorial
for April 20, 2001

Let’s look ahead at what might be happening in the four weeks leading up to the election.

First off, you will hear a lot about Liberal candidates and their gaffes – much more than for the NDP. This is because it is expected that Liberals will win and as W.A.C. Bennett once said, no one shoots at a dead duck. There will be about 40 Liberal candidates who are new faces and every one of them will be, as all new candidates are, naïve as hell and making statements and promises that don’t stand up to the faintest of scrutiny. They are all fresh from nominating conventions where it doesn’t matter what you say as long as you have the numbers signed up and they are all fresh from hearing wonderful things said about them. They also believe that they are candidates for cabinet and, even if they are not, they profoundly believe, contrary to all the evidence that they’ll be going to Victoria to do important things. I know these things because I’ve been there. They will be disabused of these notions soon enough and in the meantime, they will learn just how badly they can be misunderstood by the media who, for some reason, haven’t read their election material and thus found out what a wonderful candidate they’re dealing with.

This is the reason, of course, that Liberal guru Martyn Brown wants all Liberal candidates to sing from the same Liberal tailor made song sheet. There will still be goofs a-plenty. All candidates meetings will produce streams of arrant nonsense. Liberal supporters will be sure they are doomed because of the constant gaffes. And, at the end of the day it won’t matter … it won’t matter because the public understand the game better than the candidates do. They know that they are electing, under our system, either Gordon Campbell of Ujjal Dosanjh and that, if necessary, they must vote for a fence-post with hair to get the desired result. (In my case it was a fence-post with a beard too.)

Gordon Campbell will be what he is best – a platitudinous bore … while Ujjal Dosanjh will shoot a never ending scattergun from the hip. The bore will win easily. Bore’s usually do anyway but this time anyone not Ujjal Dosanjh and the NDP could win.

The televised leadership debate ought to be the only real entertainment out of the whole deal. I can tell you now that some of his advisers are telling Gordon Campbell to decline. Why should he risk being hit by a haymaker from outer space when he has the election in the bag? And if he doesn’t turn up, no one will be watching anyway. He would, of course, need a good excuse. Sickness would be OK as long as it wasn’t serious. Probably an appendectomy would be the safest – not too serious but enough to keep him out of the game. But, in the end, he’ll show and everyone will turn their guns on him. He’ll show because he likely will do all right – platitudinous bores are excellent when you’re quite willing to take a draw … and that’s all the Liberals can hope for out of this phony exercise in ersatz democracy. It’s rather like a golf tournament with Tiger in it - what will be fun to watch is who comes second. And this could have a profound effect on the future. For if Chris Delaney or Adrian Carr can score some points and actually win a seat or two the next opposition in the province may be built around them. Frankly I think Adrian has the better shot at it. She’s a woman and an attractive one. I know that’s not politically correct to say but you show me a pretty woman who is bright that doesn’t have the advantage of a man however bright and good looking. Adrian also has a good shot at two constituencies – Gordon Wilson’s and Corky Evans’s. Chris Delaney is an urban sort of a chap and there’s nothing for him to win there.

What Adrian must do is make a case that she is more than a tree hugger and is someone around whom those of the left and center left can rally. Frankly, I don’t hold out much hope for any minority candidates but I thought that in 1991 when Gordon Wilson landed his shot from the moon and went from no seats to 17. I would like to see both Delaney and Carr in the legislature because they are both intelligent, attractive and apparently dedicated people.

The sleeper issue?

No question about it. Reform. The underlying issue for a majority of British Columbians is their disconnection from their MLA and from the levers of power. Gordon Campbell doesn’t need to make any points about incompetence – hell, Ujjal Dosanjh has already admitted it and apologized. A tax cut is a good issue but it’s an arguable one. Reform isn’t arguable at all. People will support concrete statements and I would advise Mr Campbell to occupy that ground as soon and thoroughly as possible.

Could the election be closer than we now think?

Only if people start to think that a huge Liberal mandate is not a good idea and that a healthy opposition ought to be elected. The trouble with that notion is two fold – who makes that sort of decision where? Does anyone, anywhere who wants a change of government want to risk that they might be helping the NDP to pull off an upset? The other thing is, of course, that when the public wants to throw a government out that usually crosses all constituency boundaries. It's almost axiomatic that the first to go in a landslide are the cabinet ministers. A third thought is, of course, as I mentioned – one can vote Green, Unity or even Marijuana if a protest vote is wanted.

I think the handicap borne by Mr Dosanjh is too great. It’s not just nearly 10 years of appallingly bad government, he lost his personal claim to virginity by not calling an election coming out of his leadership win. He is now seen as a ditherer and people have had a chance to associate him with the Clark affair, the Carrier case and even Nanaimogate.

The campaign will have its moments but not even Gordon Campbell can blow 50 points.