CKNW Editorial
for May 4, 2001

The last polling numbers are interesting as they show the Liberals still with an unheard of and unprecedented 49 point advantage. What is even more interesting is to see the Green Party well within the tolerable accuracy level of the NDP at 13% and, one would think, growing. It all depends, of course, where these votes are located. If the 13% is spread across the Province then the Greens won't elect a soul. If, however, they are concentrated in two or three ridings they could mean seats.

There may only be Liberals in the next House and that would be a bad thing. I know that the vast majority of British Columbians want to see the end of the NDP, and many forever, but that doesn't make for a healthy situation.

Let’s do a little speculation. Let's, just for the fun of it, see the next parliament as having all Liberals except a handful of Greens including Adrian Carr. And then lets look down the road a ways. If there are something in the order of 70 Liberals in the House you can bet the ranch that ere the next term is over, there will be some very unhappy campers on the Liberal backbench.

You have to understand the psychology. Everyone who wins a seat sees themselves as cabinet material. Why would they run if they didn't? And many of them who won't make cabinet are indeed cabinet material. Let's take, just for an example, Greg Halsey-Brandt, the long term and highly respected Mayor of Richmond. Based upon his record and his obvious talents one might think of him as certain cabinet material and probably the next Municipal Affairs minister. But think on that a moment. Also from Richmond is the very talented Linda Reid who has been in the Legislature for 9 1/2 years awaiting her turn. It would be a very brave Premier Campbell indeed who would keep her out of cabinet. And there are very definitely geographical considerations to cabinet making. It isn’t just talent that’s the consideration – there is regional representation and there are many cabinet ministers – probably including me – that have owed their "honourable" more to the location of their rising than to their talents.

Then there is at least one other Liberal veteran with some dibs on the Municipal Affairs ministry, Ted Nebbeling. I only use this to exemplify that there will almost certainly be about 20 Liberals, many of great potential, who will be sitting on the backbench with nothing to do ... other than what they are told. And after they realize that they’re out for the duration, they’ll get antsy. It’s human nature. And when you sit so close to the seat of power, look at your cruddy little office shared with a couple of others compared to the handsome digs of ministers you become susceptible to a lot of naughty and disloyal thoughts. This is especially true when cabinet ministers get into trouble – as they do – and you have to loyally support them when you know damned well you could do a better job.

Mr Campbell, who as premier will no more like noisy, troublesome parliamentary committees than any other premier will make a virtue of necessity and have lots of them if only to keep this unruly backbench as out of mischief as possible. But no matter how interesting, being a member of a committee doesn’t compare to being a minister.

Now move the scenario down the road a couple of years. By that time some of that backbench will have been promoted to cabinet which means, of course, some pretty unhappy ex cabinet ministers will now join that backbench.

What this all means is that any opposition members will have government MLAs to work on. And if the opposition happens to be the Green Party, things could happen.

It is unlikely in the extreme that the NDP, if they have a handful of MLAs, could seduce too many Liberals. That's not impossible, of course - I can remember two NDP members - Frank Calder and Al Passerall, both from Atlin - who crossed the floor to the Socreds. But a more gentle left of center party would have more appeal, I would think, to idle hands on the government backbenches. I think it takes a half dozen or so to get official party status with extra money and, after a couple of years of chafing at not being in there with the big kids and a new sense of importance can be a very attractive prospect.

It must be remembered that party discipline is maintained by a judicious use of the stick and the carrot. If you've languished on the backbench for a couple of years and are tired of make work projects on a parliamentary committee, there aren't many carrots left. By that time the threat of the stick is pretty much gone too. In fact the people you find you have most in common with are other backbenchers, in this case under my scenario, Adriane Carr and the Greens

Now there is another attraction here. The Green Party has little history and even less doctrine. It's not like joining the NDP which has lots, some would say too much, of both. A disgruntled Liberal could see joining a caucus where he would actually have a hand in forming the policy of the party very attractive.

Now all of this goes by the boards if Adriane Carr isn't elected - or does it? Didn't the BC Reform Party come into being in the legislature without originally electing anyone?

Let's leave the speculation on this basis. If the Liberals elect 60, 70 or even more MLAs they will not all still be Liberal MLAs by 2005 - on that you can bet the ranch.

What they in fact become may well decide the political appearance
of this province for decades to come.