CKNW Editorial
for July 11, 2001

I think the mistake goes back to the Reform party days and Preston Manning's decision to expand the party so that it could appeal to Ontario and points east. Once that decision was made, the Party didn't really broaden its appeal at all because many of its supporters felt that Ontario was the problem not the solution. What might be gained east of the Lakehead put at risk support to the west of it. That might have been wrong-headed, narrow mindedness but it was reality.

Much of the reason for the foundation of the Reform party in the first place was dissatisfaction with the way the country was run from Central Canada.
Probably the biggest impetus for the Reform Party came out of Meech Lake but more importantly from the referendum on the Charlottetown Accord ... that referendum was the reason the Tories were dumped the following year and it's fair to infer the reason the Reform party did so well.
Preston Manning, after spending two terms in Opposition, one as Leader of the Opposition, liked the idea of crossing the floor and becoming Prime Minister hence the change of the party into the newly formed Alliance. This was by no means unanimously accepted by the party membership. There were many who wanted Reform to stay and be, not to put too fine a point on it, a common scold that might someday deny power to the Liberals but which would be content in the shorter term to forget ambitions to go national.

Stockwell Day was the natural to head the new Canadian Alliance. Seemingly experienced in politics, a successful Treasurer of Alberta, Mr. Day had deep roots both in Alberta and in Central Canada. Given the mandate as members saw it, Mr Day was the only one of the candidates who could appeal to voters on both sides of the Lakehead.

The miscalculation is now so easy to see. Mr Day had flaws of character and in his political resume that should have troubled the new party deeply. Mr Day was not only super religious - as is Mr Manning - but he wore his religion on his sleeve. But the worst part was political. No one stopped to think that being an MLA in a one party province scarcely gave a man the chance to hone any political skills. Moreover, who couldn't have succeeded as Provincial Treasurer of Alberta - especially since all the major decisions were made by the premier?

So the contest really got down to a backroom boy from Ontario, Tom Long who had no appeal in Western Canada, Preston Manning, a man of considerable substance, who had no appeal in Ontario and Stockwell Day who might be expected to have some appeal in Ontario but who had no substance. Mr Day immersed himself in Ontario during the last election but either voters there could detect his lack of substance or just were never going to vote the Alliance, or both.

Stockwell Day was selected by the Alliance members to do one thing – win Ontario. In that he spectacularly failed and spectacular failures in politics carry a very high penalty.

What now?

Well, God only knows. In my memory there has never been anything quite like this though the collapse of the Socreds under Bill Vander Zalm may be close. But with the Socreds there was an alternative to fill the vacuum. Gordon Wilson was noted for his strong pro-British Columbia stance and when he won 17 seats in 1991 this was directly linked to two things - he had taken the BC Liberals out of the national party and he had fought Meech Lake tooth and nail. There is no such vehicle to take the place of the Alliance.

This last fact perhaps provides the key. I have no doubt that given any sort of decent leadership, BC will vote Reform/Alliance in the next election no matter what the polls say today. We are notorious for parking our votes with the Liberals in between elections then giving them the finger on polling day. The secret is to find a leader who is prepared to move back onto a western base and bide his time before making another heroic bid for Ontario support. That leader is ... are you ready for this ... Preston Manning.

Mr Manning carries with him an additional plus - even though he might concentrate on the four western provinces, the Stockwell Day fiasco has given the party a lot of publicity in Ontario and Preston Manning suddenly looks pretty good there.

Ironical though it might be, Preston Manning's past inability to deliver in Ontario may just mean that a Manning led party could now get support there.

And I suppose the last word is this - if not Preston Manning, who?