CKNW Editorial
for September 6, 2001

On Tuesday I chaired a panel looking at the government after 90 days ... my panelists, Mark Milke from the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, Jim Sinclair, president of the BC Federation of Labour and Mike Smyth, well known local political commentator, gave us a wide spectrum of points of view. One of my questions was directed at the future ... and this morning I'd like to direct the same question to myself.

Looking right ahead to the next election in 2005 it would take a miracle for the Liberals to be dislodged. All defeated parties are in disarray but the NDP is terminally ill. Even if they aren't, it will take a lot more than four years for the public to ever trust them with government again. This is why my predictions, some of which will not be liked by Liberal supporters, don't matter very much - the Liberals are a slam dunk for '05 and that's that. I see a confrontation with Labour ahead. This will only in part be because the Liberals do some things Organized Labour doesn't like. It will more be because, nature abhorring a vacuum, the Labour movement will be the essence of opposition in this province. The natural enemies of a free enterprise government, the teachers, health workers, public servants in the mid to lower levels and others have to have somewhere to vent their spleen and something like another Solidarity movement of the 80s will rear its head.

There will develop, slowly but surely, dissent within the Liberal caucus. Gordon Campbell is the boss, no question about that, but he will not be able to permanently convince the 50 or so non cabinet ministers in his caucus that the work they do has any meaning. You can only sustain interest in make-work projects so long - you can only stand a limited amount of rah rah, all for one and one for all stuff. Liberals will soon tire of the never ending fawning over cabinet ministers and the asking of loaded questions in question period and in so called debate. Sooner or later some of them are going to start to ask some real questions. Moreover, I think that the public, assuming no danger from the left, might actively encourage a new party to come from the Liberal caucus akin to the old Reform Party.

The government will have to face extreme fiscal trouble as the entire world goes into recession. It's a matter of amusement to hear NDP leader Joy McPhail taunting the Liberals about a two billion dollar deficit given the shambles the NDP left the Province in but her attacks in this area will have some resonance because of the expectations the Liberals have raised, giving the impression that they can balance the budget in three years. What will happen is a cutback of services which will add to the non legislative opposition which will develop. The Liberals will have two choices - forget about balancing the budget or making big cuts. I think they'll do a bit of both which will get both the left and the right mad at them. From this is where will come the non legislative opposition of the left and, perhaps, a within the legislature opposition of right wing Liberal caucus members.

You've probably gathered by now that I don't think the 77 member caucus can stick together. I don't. It's all gung ho now, everybody for the team and all that but that's because anything the Liberals do looks good by comparison to what we’ve had. But I know from experience the pressures MLAs begin to feel from their constituents. We were lucky in the first Bill Bennett government of which I was a member because we had a hugely divisive issue to face right from the start - ICBC. We all took a hell of a lot of flack and many caucus members including some cabinet ministers were most unhappy with the huge premium hikes that resulted from us cleaning up the NDP mess. But what this did was force all of us to face the need for party discipline, something Bill Bennett was able to keep throughout his long premiership. Gordon Campbell's problem is the sheer size of his majority. In time it will be no longer rare for Liberals to break ranks on issues. Already there is a palpable arrogance amounting almost to religious zeal – they vanished the hated foe and we must be eternally grateful. We haven’t perhaps noticed this because we’re all so delighted to have the NDP history but it will become more apparent as time passes. All governments become arrogant and this one will more than others.

Mr Campbell hopes to offset caucus unrest with so-called "free" votes and this is the best, indeed only, tack he can take. But by 2003 you can be sure that there will be open divisions in that caucus.

In order to fully understand why this will happen you must remember that there is not a single backbencher who doesn't think they’re better qualified to be in cabinet than the incumbents. As time passes and controversial issues arise, the strains will become intolerable – a situation that will be exacerbated by the fact that the Premier will unquestionably have sent some cabinet ministers packing and there is nothing more bitter than a cabinet minister flung into the backbench.

What I have said will be misunderstood. This dissent won't happen because the caucus is made up of Liberals - it will happen because they are human beings.

Moreover, I am not saying that Mr Campbell's government will ever be in the slightest danger. He is a skilled leader and will play the factions off against each other with considerable skill. In the end, however, there will be very open fault lines. And, of course, there will be scandals as there always are. Having said all that, what do I see by 2005?

ICBC will be at least in part privatized. So will Hydro. Our Provincial debt will be close to $45 billion. There will be probably more support for the NDP or whatever takes its place but it will be divided. The main beneficiary of this will be, if she plays her cards right, Adrienne Carr and the Green Party. There will be a new aggregation on the right - perhaps under the old Reform banner.

For all this, Gordon Campbell and the Liberals will win 50-60 seats and retain government handily. After all, when have I ever been wrong?

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