Vancouver Courier
for March 11, 1998

Are we nuts? Canadians have begged Jean Charest to save us. He's the golden haired boy who, aside from his eloquence in the last Quebec Referendum, has no meaningful track record other than being a junior minister in the Mulroney government who had to resign for phoning a judge.

We should throw pails of cold water on each others faces and ask what makes us think that Charest can even make things better much less save the nation. More importantly, we should ask ourselves why we think any of our problems, much less the main one, could be solved my any single person.

The best case I've heard for Charest is that he'd provide us with a friendly government in Quebec.

Really?

Like Robert Bourassa's Liberals were a friendly government?

Bourassa was the one - how quickly we forget - who demanded and got an addendum to the original Charlottetown Accord which would have given Quebec a permanent 25% of the House of Commons. We need friends like that?

But there is another interesting side of this foolishness. With Charest gone someone takes his place and that will certainly be Ralph Klein. And won't that provide some fun for people like me who feast off the merrie melodies of Canadian politics?

I can't imagine who'd beat Klein - or even run against him.

He get no support from Quebec of course but he'll do fine on Ontario assuming, safely, that Mike Harris won't run and will at least tacitly support him. He'll carry the rest of the Convention easily. In short, he's a shoo-in.

He'll need a seat in the Commons but these things open up and I doubt that the Liberals will even contest him, preferring to see a shoot-out between Klein and the Reform.

All right then - let's suppose it's National Tory leader Klein. What now?

Trouble with a very big "T" for the Reform Party, especially in Alberta where the party's soul reposes. Preston Manning is very popular in Alberta and Albertans are proud that their home grown party has done so well.

But Klein saved the province. At least he did to anyone considering voting anything but NDP. That gives him a very big leg up. I think we must assume that Ralph Klein won't even consider seeking the leadership unless he's confident of carrying his own province.

What then of B.C.?

Somehow I don't believe that Klein will hurt the Reform Party here as much as in Alberta because by and large, Reform MPs have been well received in B.C. Many of them have rock solid support in their constituency directed more at them as individuals than to the party they represent. Of course Ralph Klein will make a difference but his task will be harder here.

Much in B.C., and I daresay Alberta, depends on what Klein says about unity matters. To the horror of eastern observers who pause long enough to observe - which is to say not many - people in B.C. are very astute observers of the constitutional scene and understand things that politicians wish they didn't. They understand that vetoes for everyone doesn't make a veto for Quebec all right - vetoes in a constitution are wrong, period. They also understand that special designation for Quebec leads directly to a veto.

So far, Mr Klein has shown a remarkable ignorance of these issues probably because he hasn't yet realized that the people understand and know that major constitutional changes sufficient to satisfy Quebec's ever increasing appetite require unanimity.

Let's carry our speculation one step further. Klein becomes Tory leader and in 2001 wins enough seats to be either Prime Minister - it could happen, depending on how Ontario votes - or Leader of the Opposition.

After five years of messing around, we'll be back where we started - 2 1/2 parties in the Commons with one party holding all its power in Central Canada and the other everywhere but in Quebec. We'll have a national leader (something which Preston Manning definitely is not) unable to speak any French and for that reason (politically incorrect though it may be to say it) popular in much of English speaking Canada.

In one sense, however, nothing will have changed. We're headlong down a collision course with Quebec's demands and no matter what Mr Klein or Mr Chretien do, the "mother" of all referenda will take place in Quebec. When that time comes Ottawa will have to either have constitutional proposals agreed to by the other provinces (unlikely unto impossible) or promise them even though they know that they cannot be redeemed.

Ralph Klein will make the journey very interesting but at the end of the line we still must face the question - is Canada prepared to make more concessions like special status, a veto, plus, plus, plus (for that's what it's take for another relatively short period of peace) or not?

No person, be it Jean Charest or Ralph Klein can change that.