Vancouver Courier
for November 15, 1998

The NDP are lower than a snake’s belly in the polls meaning, of course, no election until the very last minute, right?

Well, that’s the conventional wisdom. Why would anyone call an election they were bound to lose unless forced to?

Because there are other considerations. Glen Clark knows that things aren’t going to get much better for at least a couple of years. He has no winning issue now and he can’t see one in his crystal ball except one – the Nisga’a treaty. What if he could stickhandle an election which in itself was virtually a referendum on Nisga’a? Then take his chances?

Glen Clark is a very smart politician. He knows that huge odds can be bucked if a lot of other things fall into place. He witnessed a huge comeback in May 1996 where he overcame a 20 point deficit. That took dumping the old leader (that’s not on Mr Clark’s agenda!) but the NDP also succeeded in the face of a major scandal in which the Premier was personally involved as the minister in charge. The trick is to so engineer events that the NDP are in there with a chance.

What are some of the factors here?

First, we must always remember that it’s seats, not popular votes that count meaning polls are can be very deceptive.

Second, Premier Clark will have something to show many voters in areas he must retain – SkyTrain, for one, takes care of about 7 ridings. He will flash new ferries at Vancouver Island and organized labour should guarantee him the Kootenays and the North Coast.

Third, that’s not enough. Mr Clark has to win interior and northern seats as well as Lower Mainland seats.

Fourthly he must find an issue which gets him seats in his strong areas but also can win votes in the marginals.

Here’s where it gets a bit tricky because there are two problems – he must soon call a by-election in Parksville-Qualicum and winter’s coming. Mr Clark isn’t fussy about having a by-election, not that it would affect his government’s standing in the Legislature but because it might go so badly against him that it would give momentum to the Liberals. Yet he must call that by-election just before Christmas for no longer than 29 days later.

All right, folks, let’s do some crazy figuring here, just for fun.

On December 23, just before Christmas, Mr Clark calls the by-election for January 20th. He also announces that the Legislature will convene January 4^th for debate of the Nisga’a Treaty.

The Liberals will holler foul, of course, but Mr Clark will solemnly intone that the Nisga’a have been kept waiting too long, that he wants to have it passed by B.C. before it’s debated in Ottawa, blah, blah, blah.

When the legislature opens the Liberals will know what the game is. The Premier will be trying to get use the treaty debate to launch an election campaign. They’ll be caught in a bind for if they use all the delaying tactics oppositions can use (even though the Liberals have never mastered them) Glen Clark will roll his eyes and exclaim "there they go, further delaying justice to the great Nisga’a nation", with a few more blah, blahs added.

The debate will get heated. There will be splits in Liberal ranks as three or four Liberals – perhaps more – will want to support Nisga’a. Clark will exploit these divisions. Bill Vander Zalm will be flying high with lots of juicy sound bites and Clark will do everything he can to force him into political bed with Gordon Campbell.

But it won’t only be the Liberals Mr Clark will be working over. The business community where the Liberals’ dough comes from – already divided on the subject – will be assured that investment will just start pouring in once the treaty is passed.

Meanwhile, the by-election is going full blast creating all manner of opportunities for intemperate sound bites from Liberals and Reformers.

For Glen Clark that may be as good as it’s going to get – a one issue election opportunity. He knows that even with the Reform Party splitting the vote, he’s in deep trouble where there are many issues because he loses badly on most of them. At least he does with those who are not deeply committed NDPers.

Back, then, to the Legislature. After lofty NDP speeches of pure poetry contrasted with the hard realities of Liberal intonations, and an obvious split in Liberal ranks, the Premier calls an election for the 12^th of February, which wipes out the by-election.

It won’t be a one-issue election – none ever are. But some come awfully damned close as witness the 1988 federal election where the only thing really debated was free trade.

Whenever Glen Clark calls an election he’ll be in there tough. Why not, if you’re a tough campaigner, call it when you’ve got an issue which just might get you to that magic 40% which is all it takes for the NDP to win?