Financial Post
for March 6, 1998

Perhaps it's the movie but we hear a lot about re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic after Premier Clark's cabinet shuffle last week which changed absolutely nothing. The province has but one cabinet minister - Glen Clark.

Of significance, however, was Andrew Petter staying in Intergovernmental Affair as the legislature gets ready to debate and, presumably pass, the Calgary Declaration. This shows that on this matter, the Premier trusts Petter.

But before I get into that - and it all connects - let's look at Liberal leader Gordon Campbell.

Winning the next election should be a no brainer. After all, the NDP are seen as a calamity beyond compare.

But Campbell already lost a no brainer in May 1996 and is always well positioned to do the same again. And despite what many would have you think, this has a lot less to do with Campbell than with his party.

For a party to win - usually - there must be a solid number of voters believing in the party itself. But the Liberal's popularity in the polls is not because anyone likes them but because the NDP is so disliked. Prior to 1991 the Liberals were lucky to outpoll the Rhinoceros Party. The fact that the hapless Reform Party still has 20% support shows that there is still substantial concern amongst voters that supporting Campbell implies support for the federal party.

Mr Campbell's fight against political shadows has not been too successful - until two weeks ago when he declared his refusal to support the Calgary Declaration unless it was clearly stated that recognizing Quebec's "uniqueness" would not imply consent to any amendments to the constitution, especially one giving Quebec a veto over constitutional change.

To many Canadians this might sound pretty small potatoes - after all, why worry about that now?

Well, the government has to worry about that now - and a lot. For the argument is this.

Quebec has made two constant demands over the years - a recognition of its distinctiveness and a veto over all constitutional changes.

In a very real sense. they amount to the same thing. To recognize Quebec's uniqueness implies. logically and emotionally, a veto by which that uniqueness can be preserved. A recognition of "uniqueness" leads inevitably to a demand for that precious veto, a demand that must be responded to by the Chretiens and Romanows of the country. That creates a collision course with British Columbia at one end for a change to the amending formula requires unanimous consent of the provinces which in B.C. means a referendum where the answer would be "no".

That's the rub and is why neither the Premier or Mr Campbell wants the Calgary Declaration to be passed free of any inference of approval of any constitutional veto for Quebec.

This is a long way of explaining why Gordon Campbell's stated position is so important. For the first time since he won the leadership in 1993 he has an issue which clearly divides him from the Federal Liberals. This is his key to the Premier's chair. And free enterprisers can, across the land, rejoice as British Columbians give Clark and Co. the back of their hand.

Except it's not that easy.

Prior to the Calgary Conference last year, Campbell and his Intergovernmental Affairs critic Geoff Plant, sent a dovish letter to Glen Clark urging him to take a soft line. There was little mention of the pitfalls of distinct society or vetoes - just go easy, was the message.

Geoff Plant, one of the more powerful members of Campbell's inner circle, is a centralist from a family so deeply committed to the federal Liberal Party that they even kept their heads up during the Trudeau years which is more than most B.C. Liberals can say. He represents the very element from which Campbell is trying to distance himself. You can bet the ranch that this division in Liberal ranks will be exposed and deftly exploited by Glen Clark and Andrew Petter.

Which gets me back to the beginning.

Andrew Petter, still Constitutional Minister, is publicly opposed to any constitutional vetoes. He's also a tough political streetfighter who will relish the opportunity to expose Liberal dissension.

My bet is that the Calgary Declaration will pass the legislature but will contain a disclaimer to the effect that this can't be taken as approving any constitutional changes, especially a veto for Quebec.

For that's the politics of the matter and the Legislature is a political place.