Financial Post
for April 17, 1998

Until last week I wouldn't have given the Tories a chance of reviving as a national party. Zero. The odds are still long but at least there are some odds.

A Party can't be "national" unless it can elect people from all regions of the country. The Liberals, post Trudeau, qualify - barely - but Reform is a long way off. So are the NDP. Both have national constituencies but history and local politics combine against them in key regions.

The Reform Party has taken a large chunk of the Tories natural constituency which depended on winning Alberta and B.C. Since Mulroney and Co.'s desperate gamble to win Quebec at the cost of sacrificing the Far West failed in October 1992, it's been Reform country.

Why then do I spy a teeny little ray of light at the end of a long tunnel?

First is the lull in the unity crisis. It'll come back - Jean Charest will, if he wins, have promised what is not in his power - or Jean Chretien's for that matter - to deliver. But until that certain day of reckoning, there'll be a continued lull. And Canadians can be counted to fortify their permanent state of denial by whatever seems for the moment to be good news. As long as Canadians outside Quebec see Mr Charest as the saviour and until that bubble bursts - as burst it will - a lot of wind is taken from the Reform Party's sails.

Mercifully for the Tories, the calm in the unity crisis means that the new leader no longer need worry about former leader Charest's constitutional position. The new Tory chief will avoid like the pox words like "distinct", "unique", or "veto" knowing that any suggestion that the "new" Tories support the "Two Founding Nations" theory means abandoning utterly the West Coast.

This will be dishonest because the issue has been adjourned, not settled. Separatism may wane but it won't disappear. But politics is about facing the present not the future and the Tories know that.

The second reason the Tories have a chance is the recent Reform by-election loss in B.C. The Liberals didn't win - the Reform lost in a very low turnout of all voters but especially Reform supporters.

Why did that happen? Wasn't this a perfect time to show Preston Manning that he was doing a super job? To give their boys back in Ottawa some encouragement?

It happened because of the "flag" nonsense. During that debacle, I was, along with Dave Rutherford of QR77 in Calgary, a guest of Roy Green on his Tornot talk show on 900CHML. I was odd man out. Roy thought Reform had done well in Ontario on the "flag" issue. Dave reported enthusiastic nigh unto delirious support of Reform in his province. I thought Reform MPs made horses' asses of themselves. So did the voters of Port Moody-Coquitlam.

It should have been a slam dunk for Reform but both Liberal and Reform workers heard the same thing on the doorsteps - the Reform Party looked terrible in the flag slag coming across as puerile and undisciplined. It was the difference - the reason why Reform voters gave this one a pass.

The Reform Party is two parties - one in Alberta, one in B.C. Manning and his flag waving pleased the good ol' boys with the cows, pickups and oil stains on their jeans but embarrassed their supporters over the Rockies.

If the Tories can exploit this in B.C., Reform is in trouble for it's their support in B.C. which is the backbone of their hope for national credibility.

British Columbians, however much they may detest the Central Canadian establishment, are far more like Ontarians than Albertans. There seems to be an increasing sense in Ontario that the future of the country has a lot to do with reconciling B.C. to Confederation and continuing this process means much more to Lotuslanders than red neck flag waving in response to Bloc Quebecois insults.

It seems that every time the Reform Party seems to have shucked off its "redneck" image it finds a new way to fortify it.

But the Tories must find a leader. It'll have to be someone B.C., fed to the teeth with Central Canadian politicians, can relate to. That ain't Hugh Segal I can tell you.

If the Tories can find the right leader, a big "if", long though the odds be, they might not have expired quite yet.