Financial Post
for May 15, 1998

To some it all seems so long ago. Many can't remember 1972-5 because they hadn't been born yet. To those of us who got politically active in that era, it's like yesterday.

On August 31, 1972 the NDP, the "socialist hordes at the gate" as W.A.C. Bennett called them, smashed a 20 year Socred reign with less than 40% of the popular vote. Something had to be done to prevent that vote splitting ever happening again. And it was.

By 1975, after much tooing and froing the "right" had coalesced behind a revived Social Credit Party which under Bill Bennett had publicly and privately courted, successfully, prominent Tories and Liberals. It worked in the 1975 election and continued working until 1991 after Bill Vander Zalm had destroyed the party.

The Socreds appealed to voters' hearty dislike of Ottawa and any party which might play footsy with them. This deep-seated prejudice goes back forever. Even newcomers - especially would you believe Ontarians - quickly jump into the bunker with all the zeal of the recently converted. This presents a strong wall of resistance for B.C. Liberals and had it not been for then leader Gordon Wilson breaking the provincial wing away in 1990, they would still be the fringe party they had been since 1952.

What happened to the Wilson led Liberals in the 1991 election was a miracle. The Social Credit Party, demolished under Bill Vander Zalm, utterly collapsed. Hesitantly, the non left filled the vacuum with Liberals who became the Official Opposition. Then Gordon Wilson was cast aside by the Liberals in September 1993 and replaced by Gordon Campbell. The federal Liberals promptly re-asserted themselves and must be reckoned with.

But shouldn't it still be a walkover when the next election is called? The Clark government of 1998 is even more unpopular than the Barrett bunch in 1975. The public doesn't just dislike Clark's ideology but worse, the economy is in the tank and projections going into a 1999 or 2000 vote are terrible.

So, why this column? Surely it's a no-brainer! Campbell in a walk.

Not necessarily. Clark could still pull it off. And here's how.

The B.C. Reform Party has utterly disintegrated - except in the polls. Led by an oil man who virtually lives in Alberta only coming home long enough to alienate more people, slagged in the media and laughed at by other parties, Reform stays, amazingly, at 15-20% in the polls. This support is concentrated in the interior and the north where, in 1996, it split the vote to permit Glen Clark to win with 3% less of the popular vote than Campbell had.

These folks used to be Socreds. They hate the NDP but despise the Liberals seeing them as in the nest mates of the federal Liberals. They won't likely win any seats in the next election but, given the right circumstances, they could deprive the Liberals of power.

The B.C. Liberals can't just shuck their image. Three weeks ago, to the horror of her colleagues, the Liberal critic on Women's issues, in agreeing with the Minister that the Charter of Rights was indeed a wondrous document, pointed her finger at the government and reminded them that (italics) it was a Liberal government which bestowed this blessing. I was in the House at the time and NDP Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Andrew Petter sent me a note saying "see, they're not Chretien Liberals, they're Trudeau Liberals!" Ouch!

Then there was the Commons vote on the Hepatitis "C" issue and Canadians across the country were horrified to see their Liberal MPs toadying the Chretien line - a glorious opportunity for Gordon Campbell to lay the wood to the Federal Liberals and establish the independence of his party. Not a peep. Not a word out of any of them. For the rule is, don't alienate the backroom boys who raise your money for you. And - here is where you can act surprised - the lads that raise the money for Mr Campbell also raise it for Mr Chretien.

If things stay as they are, Campbell will win.

But what if they don't stay the same. What if Reform gets a new leader - Bill Vander Zalm's name comes up and with the far right the name's still magic - and Glen Clark dons his Captain B.C. cape and escalates whatever Ottawa outrage is current? A decent NDP diversion plus 20% for Reform and, for all the catastrophe the NDP has been, they could win.