Vancouver Province
for April 2, 1999

Is it possible that all we learned pundits were wrong? Could it be that in the honoured mariner’s tradition Captain Clark has opted to go down with the ship?

I don’t think so if only because those search warrants must be opened sometime and the Conflicts of Interest Commissioner must surely rule against our intrepid skipper. But still … that budget has Tom Gunton’s fingerprints all over it and Tom’s the Captain’s kid (little pun there … Captain Kidd … piracy … ah, to hell with it).

There’s no doubt that Finance Minister McPhail was right when she said that this must be a deficit budget. The little point she failed to note was the reason – the NDP have screwed things up since that lamentable day in November when Mike Harcourt, the man who cut up his Amex card during the leadership debate, became premier with the promise to balance the budget during the "business cycle" - whatever that was supposed to mean. I guess we know this much – the NDP notion of the business cycle is at least nine years.

This was the eighth straight deficit budget. What the NDP have never learned – and left wing economists never admit – is that deficits beget deficits. It’s not very complicated either but the likes of Glen Clark don’t understand even uncomplicated economics. By way of aside, I tried to explain to Mr Clark on air last June that the big landowners don’t pay the corporate capital tax; they pass it on to the tenants who either pass it on to the public (if they can get away with it) or go broke. Little wonder the premier doesn’t understand that this year’s billion dollar deficit (it will come to that and more) means about $85 million more interest which must go on next year’s budget. Clearly he also doesn’t understand that the cumulated deficits since the NDP took office added nearly $3 billion dollars in debt servicing charges this year. A quick turn on the calculator shows that the amount of debt servicing charges for this year are about three times the size of the deficit itself!

Because Tom Gunton obviously won out over the Finance Minister, who would have had a modest deficit, the temptation is to conclude that the Premier won over his cabinet and is therefore staying on.

But there is another way of looking at this.

We’ll now see a concentrated effort to get the Nisga’a deal passed. There will be a great ceremony featuring Glen Clark and Chief Joseph Gosnell embracing on the Legislature steps that will make the rank and file NDP very happy. (Since the consequences of this deal won’t be felt for some time this is a perfect moment for political strutting.) This will happen before the courts release the search warrants, before Conflicts Commissioner H.A.D. Oliver finishes his report and certainly before his pal Dimitrios Palarinos appears before the Beak.

Now then – wouldn’t this be an excellent time for the Premier to ask for prime TV time and solemnly announce something like this: - "I’ve accomplished all I set out to do. I’ve put in place the landmark sign of brotherhood, the Nisga’a Treaty and by reason of our sensitive budget have saved Medicare and the Education system. And, of course, politics is very hard on my wonderful wife and my young family. With the province in such great shape it’s time for me to move on to other things and passed the torch etc etc." In all likelihood the speech would contain a number of well placed shots at all his enemies very much including the wretched journalists who’ve been so unfair.

This timing allows the party to turn their annual convention in June into a leadership convention. Just as Glen Clark was able to shuck off all the sins of the Harcourt administration, very much including the ones he himself had a big hand in, so will the new leader Gordon Wilson be able to shuffle aside the ferry scam, casinogate and the appalling budget as old news and try to establish himself and his new party as something very different. Because Wilson is beholden to no one in the party and, if selected will be the leader out of a desperate desire for electoral salvation, he’ll be able to criticize his predecessor to a fare-thee-well and get away with it.

B.C. politics is never dull. Even by that standard, these next few months should be very interesting.