Vancouver Province
for July 23, 1999

How the hell is a political prognosticator suppose to ply his trade in this goofy climate? I mean back in the good old Socred days people who were supposed to resign, did - in fact a couple who didn't need to did. It was all predictable. The present bunch, particularly the head banana, is really something else.

Glen Clark's administration has been without redeeming features - unless you like Nisga'a. Right from the get-go Clark's been in trouble - indeed the day before he was sworn in the Hydrogate mess broke with the about-to-be premier up to his mustache in it. He won the election the following May largely by lying to the public about the budget and it's got worse and worse ever since. Even the most pollyannish of NDP insiders concede that if an election were held today the NDP would be lucky to win 4-5 seats.

You have to wonder what sort of magic dust gets up the nostrils of politicians so that they see everything but the truth. I remember a candidate for the Socred leadership in 1986 who had absolutely no chance whatever of getting past the first ballot tugging at my sleeve telling me that he was going to come up the middle and win. Bill Vander Zalm thought that Ted Hughes would somehow find that a premier who entertained private business customers at Government House and pressured the president of Petrocan to make a private deal wasn't guilty of a conflict of interest.

Different nostrils, same dust.

There are exceptions, of course. Bill Bennett knew that the polls against him were irreversible and he resigned with honour and dignity. Ditto Mike Harcourt. But for the most part politicians seem quite unable to see what is plainly there to be seen.

The major problem facing Glen Clark is, believe it or not, yet to come.

The Conflicts of Interest Chairman, the Hon. H.A.D. Oliver, advised by one of the best lawyers in B.C., Len Doust, must decide whether or not Mr Clark is in conflict. There seems to be no doubt that Clark, in accepting free labour from Dimitrious Palarinos on his house and cabin received a benefit from a man seeking a gaming licence from the Clark government. In an interview about six weeks ago I put it to Mr Clark that he had obtained free labour and he continually repeated his mantra "I paid all the bills presented to me", the same weasel words used by his lawyer whom we the taxpayer are paying. Assuming that Mr Clark did get free labour, this is a conflict of interest that a high school Civics student would instantly recognize and it is most difficult to believe that Mr Oliver won't see it also. If, as I suspect he does, it's Vander Zalm all over again and Mr Clark will no longer have the luxury of a dignified retreat but will also be hounded from office.

It is generally assumed that a real wipeout won't happen because the left always has 30% of the voters on side. That's nonsense, as federal politics have proved. A great part of that 30% will park its vote with another party if it appears they can do so without jeopardizing the social policies the NDP have famously supported. If Bill Vander Zalm positions himself and the Reform Party of BC as the far right, Gordon Campbell will move to the center and deeply into NDP territory. This is what has happened nationally where the NDP have been squeezed into a position almost akin to the loony left as they trot out arguments and slogans of the past in their vain effort to turn the clock back 25 years.

Many who want to see the back of Glen Clark as soon as possible would be delighted to see the NDP wiped off the political map. I'm not so sure. Under our parliamentary system a government must be held accountable by a strong opposition. To lose the opposition of the left would, in my judgment, be a bad result.

As always, the past instructs the present about the future. Bill Bennett and Mike Harcourt took their leave in timely fashion and their parties won the next election. Brian Mulroney and Bill Vander Zalm left it too long and their parties were wiped out.

In politics history usually repeats itself and that's what is, rightly, giving the movers and shakers of the New Democratic party fits.