Vancouver Province
for September 3, 1999

First, dear children, before old Uncle Rafe dusts off the crystal ball and tells all about the coming NDP leadership convention, first some credentials.

I’m the guy who, in 1983, gave you Canada’s tiny perfect mayor, David Crombie (what the hell ever happened to him, I wonder?) as the next Progressive Conservative leader to replace Joe Clark; who, in the same year gave you David Vickers as the new B.C. NDP leader; who, based upon his intimate knowledge of the Socred Party predicted had Brian Smith winning at Whistler in 1986; and who clearly foresaw Paul Martin’s surge to the Liberal leadership in 1990. My otherwise perfect record is soiled by picking Glen Clark for the NDP leadership in 1995 but, what the hell, no one’s perfect.

So, away we go.

First off, notwithstanding the fact that the job probably entails taking a massive kicking at the next election, there’ll be plenty who want the job. Let’s look at them in no particular order.

Corky Evans is the man with the mysterious missing finger who is inclined to appear a tad eccentric. That’s because he is eccentric. Unhappily for the political process, amiable kooks seldom win – I say that with a modicum of seriousness for how could some good old fashioned eccentricity possibly hurt this province? The last strange bird we had, W.A.C. Bennett, who was only mildly less goofy than his cabinet colleagues, is ranked by most experts as, along with Sir Richard McBride and Duff Pattullo, a great premier. Sadly, Corky will be heard but not seen as a serious contender.

Gordon Wilson is the most articulate and best informed member of the Legislature but his NDP roots are shallow indeed. He can’t make it unless the next two I mention knock each other cold and let him sneak up the middle. Wilson has trouble leading political parties of more than two in number. He’s rather like Bill Vander Zalm in that far from being able to form a consensus, he instinctively breaks them up with his "my way or the highway" approach.

Ujjal Dosanjh has a lot going for him. For one thing he is liked by the party – save the cowards who wrongly accused him of stabbing Glen Clark in the back - and is admired by the public. He may, however, have blotted his copybook over l’affaire Glen Clark. This is a tough and complicated issue – should Dosanjh have blown the whistle on Clark, knowing from the outset that he was being investigated for criminal activity, or was he just doing his duty under the Crown Counsel Act by standing aloof?

Joy McPhail took a powder just at the right time. Clearly perceiving that the party was about to step on a cow pie, Ms McPhail tipped her hat and vamoosed to Spain leaving the merde to be splattered on her main rivals. That sort of political presence of mind, while not especially admirable to people doing an Ethics 101 course, is very helpful when seeking to get to the top of what Disraeli called the "greasy pole."

I dismiss thoughts of Nelson Riis – lovely man, but a ditherer. He wouldn’t come in unless he was sure he would win and those circumstances aren’t going to be there. Svend Robinson? He likes attention and may run as a typical Robinson publicity stunt but Svend can’t win – he knows he can’t win and, besides, he’s having too much fun as an MP. The opposition back-benches in Victoria won’t take you around the world doing political deeds of derring-do and that’s what feeds Svend’s ego.

Who wins?

Well, I hate to jinx her this way but Joy McPhail, and on no later than the second ballot. Her gender is for her and she is very attractive, both sexually and (terrible word but I can’t think of a synonym) personality-wise. She is bright as a button, outspoken and gutsy. Of considerable importance, she has support of organized labour which has a disproportionate share of the clout at the convention. Picking her is a no-brainer.

Will she have a chance at winning a provincial election?

Since we’re picking horses here, don’t count out that possibility. Ms McPhail is a seasoned campaigner and long shots, if they’re tough enough, and if the favourite has a bad day, have been known to win. And, neatly mixing metaphors, Campbell did blow a two-footer for the cup in 1996, didn’t he?