Vancouver Province
for November 19, 1999

Hold everything, folks, the virgin has been deflowered thanks to my colleague Mike Smyth exposing how Attorney General Ujjal Dosanjh arranged for a hotshot lawyer to look after Dosanjh’s good buddy who’s charged with drunk driving. Actually Mr Dosanjh’s virginity began to unravel a little earlier when Vaughn Palmer of the Sun exposed as untrue his allegation that he wasn’t on Treasury Board when the key decisions on the not so fast "cats" was made. Indeed it has not been a good month for Mr Dosanjh so far.

The lawyer bit is perhaps a bit picky but in fact Mr Dosanjh did recommend, to a staunch political supporter, a lawyer (another staunch supporter) when as Attorney-General he ought to have avoided this one like the plague. Attorneys-General, are in charge of prosecutions, don’t advise people on such matters but suggest they consult the Yellow Pages.

Mr Dosanjh is also fortunate that so many people don’t understand his position when Glen Clark found himself under criminal investigation. His duty was to advise Mr Clark to stand down while the investigation was ongoing. He didn’t do this, said Mr Dosanjh, because a Special Prosecutor had been appointed and to confront the premier would compromise the investigation. It’s difficult unto impossible to comprehend how stating to the then premier that he was under investigation could have compromised that investigation - especially since Mr Clark had a search warrant in his hands at the time. Like the Sherlock Holmes dog that didn’t bark, more telling is the lack of any communication from the Special Prosecutor, the Hon Martin Taylor, advising Mr Dosanjh not to confront the Premier. Since Mr Taylor was a Supreme Court judge he knew what Mr Dosanjh’s duty was. The only communication Mr Dosanjh can present is a memo from his own Deputy advising him not to discuss the details of the investigation with Clark. To make matters worse, the Joy McPhail camp alleges that Mr Dosanjh did discuss the investigation with Mr Clark between March 2^nd and when he blew the whistle in August. Be all that as it may, let it be said that the playing field has been conspicuously leveled since Mr Dosanjh originally entered the race in lily white colours.

What now, Uncle Rafe, our fearless guru?

Well, my children, we must understand that all the infighting amongst candidates has only a limited impact on the outcome. Delegates will be chosen from constituencies and the person with the most members in those constituencies will get committed delegates. Then there is that bloc vote for the union movement quite apart from delegates that might happen also to be union members. So it's a numbers game and at this point, the numbers still favour Mr Dosanjh.

But it isn’t that easy. Other candidates have numbers too though it’s difficult to say how many are where. Assuming that Mr Dosanjh doesn’t win on the first ballot, it’s quite a different horse race for then second choices become important. And here a myth must be dispelled – candidates cannot transfer their delegates to another. These are secret ballots and just as its not certain that every committed delegate will vote for their favourite on the first ballot, it’s even less sure on subsequent ballots. Bud Smith learned that 13 years ago at Whistler when he wanted to drop out of the Socred leadership race after the first ballot and take his delegates to Brian Smith only to have his delegates tell him in no uncertain terms that they had kept their bargain and now they would do as they pleased – namely, support Vander Zalm.

And there is a final factor. There will likely be polls released on the eve of the final vote indicating who has the best chance in the next general election. Any candidate with a clear lead in that poll will win – just as Bill Vander Zalm did under similar circumstances in 1986.

Who will that be?

Ten days ago I would have said Ujjal Dosanjh and without working up much of a sweat. He still has the numbers, both in terms of committed members and in caucus/cabinet support.

But the roll Mr Dosanjh was on has become a bit wobbly. He has broken stride a bit. Give me a bit of a break in the odds and I might just take a flutter on the mare.