Vancouver Province
for January 7, 2000

Now that the big media mischief, namely the fraudulent notion that we are in the 21^st century, is behind us, perhaps we can get down to business again. The great irony is that the media, that dumps with great glee on politicians, who stray ever so slightly from the path of righteousness, had the gall to steal advertisers and the public blind by making believe that last Sunday was the start of the new Millennium. This wasn’t so as a visit to the Greenwich Observatory website will quickly demonstrate. Without meaning to, of course, the mass media proved that Hitler was right when he said, in effect, the bigger the lie the more easily the public can be made to believe it.

While we’re on the subject of deception, let’s take a bit of a boo at the NDP leadership race now in its third of four long months.

Only a hopelessly incompetent party would choose to take this long to rip off the bandage. And I smell an upset in the making. I say this knowing even less of the matter than I do about other things I write about. I have no feel for how these things go in the New Democratic party which has a block labour vote – could be as high as 25% I’m told – and bonus delegates for constituencies that bring in large numbers of new members. I can only go on my political instincts which smell a rat (not all that surprising, I suppose, considering the subject matter).

I sense that an "anybody but Ujjal" movement is gaining momentum. The chalk bet would be Mr Dosanjh – after all, he has done the most signing and at this point has the most high-powered supporters. But it ain’t over until it’s over, and this one’s far from over.

The ABU movement must, of course, stop Mr Dosanjh from winning on the first ballot. Following that bit of profundity with another, they must be able to move another candidate in the second ballot sufficient to keep Mr Dosanjh from winning there. Is this now happening?

I think so and I think it will work.

Despite what you hear, it won’t only be the Indo-Canadian community at the convention. The labour unions will not only have their bloc vote there will be union members amongst the regular delegates. There are old time NDPers too – they’ll all be there. Moreover, not all the Indo Canadians will be there to support Mr Dosanjh.

The stage is perfectly set for an upset. Ujjal Dosanj has lots of loyal friends but he has lots of loyal enemies too. He must win on the first ballot because his those who are either loved or hated have the hardest time growing with the second ballot. It was for this very reason that Margaret Thatcher, in the lead on the first ballot in 1991, packed it in.

The person to win if my call is right?

Almost certainly Gordon Wilson. Yes, the accident probe Mr Wilson - the man who was there at the Crucifixion, the Gettysburg Address and the Cremation of Sam McGee, stands to win, for a moment or two anyway, the Premiership of the Province.

Why Wilson?

Three reasons. He does have an aura of competence though admittedly, set against his colleagues, that’s not hard to attain. He appeals to those many British Columbians who believe that a Premier ought to be tough which is not to say reckless in dealing with Ottawa. And he’s got former Premier Dave Barrett, the only elected NDP premier not to have to resign mid term, behind him.

Barrett doesn’t like Mr Dosanjh because despite his claims to the contrary, Dosanjh was celebrating Glen Clark’s demise even before the undertaker measured him. You may remember Mr Barrett dressed down Mr Dosanjh for his unseemly haste in signing up members although, we’re told, the signings were done by surrogates.

Dave Barrett also likes Moe Sihota and vice-versa. They live near one another and shared a constituency when Barrett was in Ottawa and Sihota was in Victoria. Between the two of them they can influence a lot of votes.

Don’t be surprised if labour supports Wilson on the first ballot and certainly on the second.

Premier Wilson? It could happen.

If it does, Mr Campbell will have a formidable opponent who hates his guts. That should prove very interesting.