Vancouver Province
for February 18, 2000

What happens on Sunday down at the old Coliseum is of some interest, I grant you. But when all’s said and done, all that’s happening is the selection of who gets the honour to go down with the ship wearing wear the oak-clustered captain’s cap.

Who’ll that be?

I suppose the chalk bettor has to say Ujjal Dosanjh but there is a strong feeling amongst those who allege expertise in these matters that if Mr Dosanjh doesn’t make it on the first ballot, he could be in trouble. I have some difficulty with a Premier Corky – but, I suppose, he might be seen as the cleanest of a pretty grimy lot and we could have our first American born Premier. Most unlikely though.

Of greater interest - after the convention, what’s next? Does the new Premier perhaps call a legislative session before going to the people in, say, October? This is fraught with peril because leading a badly divided caucus, especially one being bombarded daily by a well-armed opposition, is a tad dangerous under our system. Moreover, the field ahead is amply mined. There’s the David Stockell case which seeks a declaration that a number of NDP members have their seats forfeit because of the "fudge-it budget" of 1996. Even if Mr Stockell loses his case – and that’s by no means a foregone conclusion – it’ll provide lots of good stuff for the media to sift through and report on. Then, of course, there’s the Conflict of Interest Commissioner’s report on former Premier Clark to consider. Although the Commissioner, Bert Oliver, has scarcely developed the reputation of a hanging judge in these matters, it’s hard to imagine how anyone could help finding that the former Premier’s dealings with Dimitrios Pilarinos were in conflict with his public duty.

And don’t forget the criminal investigation into Mr Clark’s activities which will surely come down in the next few months and even if Crown Counsel decides not to proceed with charges the whole mess will be regurgitated onto the voter’s plate for even more careful dissection. And, of course, the NDP, facing the legislature on their next budget (which will surely be a stinker), will have to endure endless attacks on how much worse the 1999 figures were than promised.

The new premier will have, basically, three options.

Options 1 and 1A are to go to the people immediately or immediately on the heels of a rosy Speech from the Throne. They have the disadvantage of being very bad times to call an election yet the advantage nevertheless of probably being better than any other time.

Option II would see the premier toughing it through a session, hoping that either the Liberals make a balls-up of it – that’s happened before – or they strike it lucky with some voter catching legislation. The disadvantage here is that the Liberals have vastly improved and are, after some heavy testing with the Calgary Accord (I wonder where that bit of rubbish has gone?) and Nisga’a, a well knit and experienced opposition. And remember this – the Liberals have developed some very polished performers – Gary Farrell-Collins, Geoff Plant, Mike Dejong and Christy Clark come to mind – and their front bench looks to be ferocious and deadly. Mr Dosanjh, should he get second prize (you know, first prize is a week in Winnipeg, second prize is two weeks in Winnipeg) and actually win the leadership, is not the sort of leader a badly beleaguered party needs in heavy going in that zoo we call the legislature. Nice guys finish last, especially in that place.

Option III has the new Premier simply running out the clock and holding the election in May, 2001. This option usually fails miserably, the federal Conservatives of 1993 being the best example. Its only advantage is that Mr Campbell has longer to screw up and the extra time helps top up the pensions of NDP cabinet ministers.

For the NDP all options are all terrible but I give Option III the nod. If you’ve hit bottom, thereafter it can only get better. Mr Dosanjh understands that so my guess – and when have I ever been wrong! – is an election at the last possible moment if only because, in Mr Micawber’s words, "something might turn up".

So now doesn’t that cheer you all up, folks? Just hang in there for another 15 months and it’s all over.