Vancouver Province
for August 11, 2000

So, it's the summer doldrums. The Legislature and the Commons are in recess which means a well earned respite from politicians doing it to us. Maybe it's time for Ol' Uncle Rafe to sip on a bourbon and branchwater (actually a Bud Lite would be nice) and do some political prognosticating. First, on the federal scene, the polls are to be utterly ignored as they always should be until about a week before the election. The Liberal lead of about 45 points will vanish on election day and Stockwell Day will be the next Prime Minister with a minority government supported by a handful of Joe Clarkless Tories and, yes, the Bloc Quebecois. It won't be a coalition.

That’s out of the question. Mr Day cannot possibly embrace the Bloc and the Tories will have nowhere else to go. Jean Chretien, in a recount, will lose his seat, and there will be great wailing and gnashing of teeth by Liberals who actually believe he was a great prime minister not a great dictator. British Columbia will return one Liberal, Ted McWhinney, one NDP, Libby Davies and the rest will be from the Alliance. John Reynolds, far too redneck for even Prime Minister Day, will have the House Leadership fobbed off on him and, when the list comes out, British Columbians will complain that they got fewer top ministers than they deserve. Knowing that British Columbians wouldn't be happy unless they had something to complain about, Prime Minister Day will ignore the fuss entirely.

In the first parliamentary session the Alliance will introduce no social engineering legislation - there won't be an gay bashing, nothing anti-Semitic, no ripping apart of social services. There will be, however, a minor tax cut across the board and a Royal Commission set up to examine taxation. Since Mr Day knows his politics well enough to not appoint a commission unless he knows what the result will be, it will, to the surprise of no one, find in favour of a flat tax at, say, 17%. But for British Columbians, as always, the action is on the local front where there will be some surprises. The NDP, with a week to go, will find themselves at 35% in the polls and very competitive with the Liberals who will be at 42%. Bill Vander Zalm will be at 15% and the rest undecided. There will be no shock at the NDP's recovery. For one thing, the BC economy will be surprisingly buoyant, with the government finally getting some credit for getting hi-tech industry to settle here. For another thing, Ujjal Dosanjh will have presented a very calm visage to a province that has yearned for a bit of tranquility. He will be running well ahead of his party, though. Most of all, the NDP will have not done anything, good or bad, for several months leading up to the April 2001 election except to bring in a budget, under the new strict rules, that is as close to balanced as damn is to swearing. In fact there will be a small deficit projected enabling the NDP to claim an honest presentation and campaign on the basis that full prosperity, under the NDP of course, is just around the corner.

One of the reasons the NDP will be in the game is the appalling campaign, of the Liberals going back to the summer of '00, conducted by the Flinstonian rockheads advising them who think that a long run-up of negative advertisements would be a good idea. The Liberal eminences gris, who have never won anything in their lives, will manage to snatch near defeat from the jaws of victory. They'll be badly hurt when Jean Chretien or Sheila Copps (the crystal ball is a bit fuzzy here) opines that it would be nice, after all these years, to have a Liberal government in B.C.

But the major downer for the Liberals will continue to be Gordon Campbell.

Bill Vander Zalm, in one of more lucid moments, said "No one likes Gordon Campbell, and no one knows why." He was right. Campbell, by not seizing control of his party early,changing its name and driving the old Grits back into the Vancouver Club billiard room, will pay for that indecision – but not the full price.

The crystal ball has cleared and it’s 45 Liberals, 34 NDP and Gordon Wilson looking for honest work.