Vancouver Province
for May 10, 2001

I’ve been accused of helping the NDP by pointing out the disadvantages of having no opposition in the Legislature. Or, flogging the Green Party as the party that should supply that opposition. I plead innocent - I’m simply examining the chicken’s entrails and trying to see what will happen next Wednesday.

So … what about the question of an opposition? I don’t for a moment think that Ujjal Dosanjh’s cry that we don’t want 79 Gordon Campbell’s is resonating if only because the retort, better 79 Gordon Campbell’s than one Ujjal Dosanjh, says it so well.

There will, I think, be an opposition and I want you to know how this will be the Green Party. Honest! Wait for it!

No party has won 50% of the popular vote in B.C. since 1928 unless you count the Coalition (Liberal/Conservative) wins of 1945 and 1949. None of Bennett Sr or Jr’s wins reached 50% although Bill Bennett came close in 1975 and 1983.

Admittedly – and this is the weak link of my argument – never has the public been so angry at the government they are going to throw out nor so mindful of what happens when a fringe party gets support. 1996 taught British Columbians that the vote can be split with, for non socialists, catastrophic results. Having said all that, here’s how the Green Party pulls off a minor miracle as the Gordon Wilson led Liberals did in 1991.

As it presently stands, the Greens still aren’t even on the radar screen despite their close numbers with the NDP. Moreover, they can’t get anywhere simply fighting over 30% of the electorate with Mr Dosanjh, They must get their hands on a chunk of the Liberal vote to make any headway.

How can they do that?

It only happens if, in the next week, two things happen. First the voter sees the NDP so thoroughly out of it that there can be no repeat of 1996 and that the Liberals are sure to win. Second, there must be a widespread feeling that it would be a bad idea for the Liberals to win all, or virtually all, of the seats.

I think the voters will see the NDP as tostado. If they didn’t a week ago they see it now, as Gordon "the Wrecking Ball" Wilson, after another typical NDP back of the envelope deal over forest licences, is not fired by Premier Dosanjh. There it is in a nutshell – a decaying party with a gutless leader. Moreover, most of the big guns in the NDP are running second or even third in their own ridings so the party scarcely looks able to elect anyone much less an opposition.

But it’s the second point that is most important. There must be a feeling that an opposition is important and that the Greens might just provide it. And it’s this notion that could well attract the center left away from the Liberals in the dying moments of the campaign. And this is the point. It is the center left that has abandoned the NDP for Campbell and that is the soft part of his support.

The Greens have no irritating catechism to live down – in fact they don’t have a catechism, period. They’ve no scary people running – at least not to the voters they must attract. Sure they’re a bunch of tree huggers but that’s got lots of appeal to the condominium conservationists who support such people.

But the critical thing is this – voting Green must be seen by those who have rejected the NDP and only embraced the Campbell Liberals as a party of convenience, as no threat to the election of those Liberals. They must see that they can afford to vote Green without any chance at all of the NDP electing anyone.

The Liberals are bound to lose some of their high numbers. It isn’t credible that they win 70% of the vote when 55% still would give them a mammoth landslide. They’re bound to lose some support - what if they lose just 10%? There are a lot of present day NDP haters who have voted for them in the past but who don’t like Liberals and distrust Campbell. Most are not rightwingers, thus attracted to the Unity Party, so why not the Greens?

And wouldn’t that make for an interesting legislature to watch for the next four years?