Vancouver Province
for July 19, 2001

Let me present two political axioms.

First, you don’t have to be a 10 in politics, you can be a 3 if everyone else is a two. Dramatic proof of that is provided by Joe Clark who is a 3 in a sea of 2s.

Second, an unresolved political crisis, like poison ivy, will have periods of remission but with predictable reliability will recur. Perhaps that axiom should have an addenda which says "politicians, during periods of remission, will act as if there will never be a recurrence."

Let’s look at how these axioms may well result in a political collision of events.

The first event, admittedly, less certain than the second, involves Joe Clark and the so-called "right". Second only to the rise of Lazarus from the dead, Joe has made a miraculous comeback. He’s gone from being a national joke when he re-won the Tory leadership by beating an anti free trade freak from Saskatchewan to being the prospective leader of a new party in opposition to Canada’s non military junta known as the Liberal Party. Unthinkable short weeks ago, Joe Clark could lead a united party of the "right" simply because there is no one else.

The Canadian Alliance is in a self-destruct mode with no putative successor to Stockwell Day who can meet the two fundamental requirements of a political leader, namely, unite the party and appeal to the voter.

There’s been an unspoken barrier to a unification of the two right wing parties and simply put, it is the differing views of Canada. Joe Clark is a "Meechkin" in Diane Francis’ wonderful term, who favours as much appeasement as it takes to keep Quebec from having another separation referendum. Joe would offer "distinct society", a permanent 25% of the House of Commons and indeed, all the goodies of the badly failed Charlottetown Accord. The Alliance believes in ten juridically equal provinces. Here’s the point – for the two parties to get together this difference must be papered over. In fact, it is being treated like the family member that drinks too much at family functions, shunted off into a corner somewhere and humoured. Everyone knows that if exposed it will be a huge embarrassment sufficient to cause an unbridgeable gulf. Best to ignore it unless facing it becomes absolutely necessary.

Well, here’s how it will become absolutely necessary and where the second axiom comes into play.

Almost certainly within the next 18 months there’ll be an election in Quebec and separatism, now assumed to be dead, will be back in play. The "federalist" hero, Liberal leader Jean Charest, is on record as favouring giving Quebec, as a minimum, all the goodies of MeechLake/Charlottetown. The dynamics of campaigning against an outright separatist – which, despite his rather weird mumblings in Paris recently, Premier Landry is – are that you must sail as close to the separatist wind as possible. This is why I’ve always maintained that it’s better for Canada to have a separatist government in Quebec City than one that forces us to appease separatism – which is what Jean Charest does.

He cannot campaign on the status quo – he must make offers that a substantial segment of western Canadians have no intention of honouring. With these promises of "distinct society" and the lot, Jean Charest will likely win the election enthusiastically supported by the Federal Liberals including Jean Chretien.

Now we have the collision. It’s déjà vu all over again. For at that point we will have the government of Canada and the Official Opposition agreeing to give Quebec that which the western provinces emphatically rejected in the referendum on the Charlottetown Accord of October 26, 1992.

We will then be into another constitutional crisis such as we had in 1980-1982 when the first Quebec referendum occurred and Pierre Trudeau patriated the constitution and again in 1986-92 when the Meech Lake/Charlottetown exercise in preserving central Canadian hegemony divided the country. The poison ivy will be back.

You can bet on it – if Jean Charest wins the next Quebec election we will be into the whole "distinct society" mess again. And we will have a new Meech Lake/Charlottetown Agreement crammed at us. As before, all national parties will be in favour, including the new, unified one of the right. And, once again the agreement will be rejected by most if not all of the western provinces.

Except this time the country might just fall apart.