Georgia Straight
for January 1995, Article 1

As we go into the new year, most political pundits assume that it will be an election year. The NDP will have been at it four years come next November and there is much danger in letting it go much longer than that.

Historically, governments which go into the last year of their mandate lose.

For one thing, when there is no time cushion ahead every little issue becomes a major one. Moreover, the fact that the government left it so long usually means that they have been unpopular up until then and have been unable to find a convenient issue to seek re-election on.

The fortunes of the NDP hang on a number of issues.

The Kemano Completion Project is one of them. To oppose this project really only hurts on the northern coast where Alcan, quite irresponsibly and wrongly, has convinced people that the end of KCP means trouble for the aluminum plant at Kitimat. In fact, by Alcan's own admission, KCP is simply a move to create power for sale to B.C. Hydro and is utterly unrelated to producing aluminum.

Indian land claims is a very big, smoldering issue and it is hard to see how this matter can be in good shape to be a positive issue for the NDP. The New Democrats believe that they are on God's side on this one - and they may well be. But the Almighty is not likely to guide the hands of B.C. voters and unless British Columbians can get that feeling of fear out of the pits of their tummies that a big giveaway is happening before their very eyes, this issue could badly hurt the NDP especially in ridings in the interior which they must maintain if they are to stay in government.

Labour is another big one. There is no question but that organized labour sees itself in a life and death struggle, not for existence - but for relevance. The NDP has done much to encourage Ken Georgetti and the B.C. Federation of Labour but this hasn't set well with many non union voters. On this score, there are two problems for the NDP. Not only are non union workers unimpressed with so called "Fair Wage" laws and practices but those who are would always vote NDP anyway. It is political given that despite the bluster of union leadership, the labouring community does not, by any means, all vote NDP. While I have no B.C. figures, it is estimated that up to 2/3 of union members in the UK, for example, vote Tory or Liberal Democrat and the "blue collar" support for the Republicans below the line has always been strong.

Mr Harcourt will be deprived of a very big issue he rode to victory on in 1991 - clean government. After his handling of the Gabelmann affidavit matter and with the stench of the Nanaimo Commonwealth Holdings matter increasing its impact on voters' nostrils, Mr Harcourt's words on the subject of political morality uttered when the "bad old Socreds" were in power ring very hollow indeed.

On the question of open government, one would have to search the world far and wide to find more cynical legislation than the NDP efforts on Referendum and Recall. Yes, the legislation is there all right but the thresholds one must achieve to use them are utterly unreachable and the public knows it.

The NDP's chances also heavily depend on how the opposition divides itself. Having achieved a coalition of the left in 1963, the New Democratic party has depended for its electoral victories in 1972 and 1991 on the coalition of the right dividing. And divide it did after 1991 with the Socreds' collapse, Liberals' sudden rise from nowhere, and the later emergence of B.C. Reform Party out of the ashes of the Socred Right Wing.

I think it can be taken as read that the Socreds are dead and that the Wilson/Tyabji team is going nowhere. How then will the electoral pie be cut?

First off, there is no rule which says that the NDP cannot come third. They are in high odour in Ontario, stone cold dead federally and certainly not riding any crest of popularity here. Moreover, they have been stuck in third place in the polls for quite awhile.

Assuming, though, that they restore their popularity to their traditional 35-40% level, it then becomes critical to know how the balance will divide.

We will have a better idea after the Abbotsford by-election which I think will be won by the Liberals. The NDP aren't in that race but it is territory which the Reform Party must win if it is to challenge in the general election. If, as I suspect, Reform loses, I believe that Gordon Campbell will be seen as the person for the anti NDP forces to rally around.

Mr Campbell has his shortcomings, as we all do. He is seen, despite his stand against the Kemano Completion Project. as in business' pocket. The fact is, however, that any party to the right of the NDP will be seen as that, just as the NDP is seen as organized labour's handmaiden.

Then there is always the unknown. Will an issue we cannot foresee move front and center? Will there be more scandals somewhere? Who knows?

My own prediction?

Well, with my record on such matters, Gordon Campbell ought to be quaking in his boots because I see him as the next Premier of B.C.

But there is a long way to go - and as Harold Wilson, former British Prime Minister once said, "in politics, six months is an eternity."

I will predict this, however, with certainty - 1995 will be a very interesting year.