Georgia Straight
for January 1995, Article 4

The Abbotsford byelection is important to the Liberals but critical for the Reform Party.

The game's afoot to determine which of them has the better chance of winning the next general election to be held sometime in the next 15 months, more likely later than sooner, the way things are going for the NDP. The question may also be, of course, whether or not two parties of the "right" will kill each other off and permit the NDP to come up the middle.

One thing everyone must understand is that the NDP are by no means doomed to defeat. They have a strong base and, if they can keep their loony fringe in the closet for a year or so will likely gain much lost ground.

What the NDP will do between now and the election is sometimes lost in the question as to who can beat them. Of course the NDP can be beaten with the right combination - but they still can win outright.

That possibility is, of course, not the conventional wisdom which has the NDP in deep doo doo. But 15 months in politics is a long time - a hell of a long time. Much can and undoubtedly will happen. Whatever happens, it doesn't have to be good for the NDP, of course - but then it might be.

The Liberals have the jump on the Reform Party right now. While the Reformers have been mired in internecine warfare, Gordon Campbell has been out beating the bushes and lining up good candidates. He has been Leader of the Opposition for 16 months and has molded together a reasonable team out what was a pretty divided group. Mr Campbell has, in consequence, been seen by those who aren't fussy about the NDP as the point man in the fight to come.

That too can change - and quickly.

Jack Weisgerber starts with some debits. He is seen by many of the old Socreds as a turncoat. The problem with this argument from the Liberals' viewpoint is that most of the Socreds who see Mr Weisgerber as a turncoat themselves voted Liberal in 1991!

Mr Weisgerber also has the handicap of the Old Guard (yes even new parties have old guards!) of the Reform Party who probably haven't totally rejected slavery as one of the options for the 90s. A moderate man himself, Weisgerber knows that his party has an image which, while appealing to the far right who think all our woes are caused by welfare bums and indigent refugees, needs a lot of fine tuning if it's to capture the middle.

Jack Weisgerber's advantage is one on one. He not only comes across as a decent sort of chap - all three leaders do that - but he also is able to combine charm with some substance.

It is difficult to read just how this is all going to play out. One theory has it that the Reform Party take what Vancouverites so arrogantly refer to as "up country" while the Liberals and NDP take the lower mainland and Victoria.

(When I practiced law in Kamloops I got so irritated at the arrogance of Vancouver lawyers I used to refer to them as the "down country bar." But I digress. Badly.)

Where it may all be decided is about week three of the election campaign when the leaders do their so-called "debate".

My guess is that Jack Weisgerber will outshine his opponents though Mr Campbell will do well. My bet is that the NDP handlers will advise Mr Harcourt to opt out but that because of pride and taunts of cowardice he will get involved and get badly mauled.

We tend - and rightly so, in my judgment - to elect parties on the basis of leadership. This reflects the basic flaw of our system which voters if they don't like, at least acknowledge - the leader is, in essence, an elected dictator. He gets to pick and fire his cabinet. Other rewards like Parliamentary secretary or party whip are at his choosing. He must get consent of his cabinet to govern but since he gets to pick 'em, that's not too tough. While the Premier and Cabinet are at sufferance of the caucus, since most of them are wannabes, they can be counted on to go along, even if they do get a tad fractious when their leash is loosened. British Columbians knowing all this, will opt for the leader they think can do a good job provided that leader has some semblance of a team to run with.

A Liberal loss in Abbotsford is by no means curtains for Gordon Campbell and the Grits. It is a setback though - a serious one.

For if Reform wins, Mr Weisgerber is a contender for real.

If they lose, he is likely a spoiler at best.

Whatever the outcome, Jack Weisgerber's election as leader of the Reform Party of B.C. makes it, in the words of Arte Johnson from the old Laugh-in days, v-e-r-y interesting. Very interesting indeed.