The Written Word
for April 28, 1999

The fear amongst Provincial Liberals – which now include a hell of a lot of Tories and Reformers – is that Glen Clark will resign. And I believe he will. In the words of a Liberal fundraiser (once a very prominent bagman for the Socreds) the NDP aren’t so dumb as to let Clark stay in power much longer.

Why are the Liberals afraid of Clark going? Because they have no confidence in Gordon Campbell.

This is the strangest thing I’ve ever seen in a lifetime of watching politics in this province but Bill Vander Zalm was right – everyone dislikes Gordon Campbell but no one can explain why. And it’s hard to credit. Mr Campbell’s a decent sort, family man, well spoken and well read on the issues. He’s managed to keep a Liberal caucus united and functioning through at least two issues one might have supposed would divide them – the Calgary Declaration and Nisga’a, in both of which cases they dramatically parted company with the federal Liberals.

Yet everywhere I go the Liberals finger their worry beads about Campbell.

Now here is the point. With Clark continuing at the helm, beating the NDP is a no brainer. It seems impossible to imagine the circumstances under which the NDP led by Glen Clark could win.

The horror scenario is Campbell having to run against a NDP run by Gordon Wilson and the reasons are obvious. Throughout the past 8 years Wilson has consistently led the polls in the leadership department. He has remained the best informed MLA in the House. As leader of the NDP he would be sans all the baggage Clark carries because he simply was not part of the wrecking crew he led. It’s true that there is a degree of vicarious responsibility on Wilson but he can truthfully say that most of the things the public are mad at Clark for, he fought against.

The real fear of Wilson is that he’s a gut fighter who would put the election campaign on a personal footing. He would try to and no doubt succeed in making the contest not between Liberal policies and those of the NDP but man against man. And that’s the way we like our elections. We think of Bennett beating Barrett, Vander Zalm beating Skelly, Harcourt beating Johnston and, yes, Clark beating Campbell. The campaign would boil down, in large measure, to how each leader handled the media and in particular, how the leaders’ debate goes. And here is what has the Liberals terrified – they see the neatly coifed, serious but cliched Campbell on camera against a man who’s very good at one on one clashes.

The Liberals now have a fantastic 40 point lead over the NDP and Reform. Under Wilson and given a year, look for that lead to shrink to perhaps 10 points. Then look to Gordon Wilson to call an election and make it a two man duel out of it that the issues of the NDP years fade into the woodwork as the gladiators gladiate.

As Yogi said, "it ain’t over till it’s over" and the possibility of the NDP being bright enough to dump Clark, hold their nose and select Gordon Wilson makes a mockery of what now looks like a shoo-in.