The Written Word
for May 5, 1999

I am being chided for predicting two weeks ago that the Premier would resign. Well, the great Churchill once said that a politician must have the ability to prophesy events … and then be able to satisfactorily explain why they didn’t happen. Well, then, though no politicians, let me explain why the premier is still here.

Everyone, but especially political leaders, is conscious of their position in history. Only someone with the brass of Bill Vander Zalm can resign in the midst of a scandal and then act as if nothing had happened. One need only look at how hard Richard Nixon worked, and successfully, to restore his image after he was forced to resign in 1974.

Glen Clark is in no less trouble today than he ever was. What he has going for him is, however, a bit of time. He has as much time as it takes for the police to finish their investigation or for the Conflicts of Interest Commissioner, H.A.D. Oliver to make his report. No one know what the police report will say but it has to be assumed that for Mr Oliver, this one’s a no brainer. We have a premier who, it seems perfectly clear, accepted a substantial benefit from a man seeking a gaming license from the government headed by that premier. As I say, it should be a slam-dunk. But Mr Oliver has been away and he will proceed with care knowing that a senior political career is at stake.

Glen Clark wants to get a few other things done before he does anything else. He badly wanted the Nisga’a Treaty passed and for him it’s a pity that it was done in such a way as a bad taste was left in everyone’s mouth, including supporters. He wants to see a bit of recovery in the economy which may amount to no more than letting a bit of time pass from his government’s outrageous budget.

I also believe that Gordon Wilson is the chosen successor and Mr Clark needs more time to work the party over. One good way to do that is wait until after this Thursday when Ken Georgetti is newly minted leader of the Canadian Labour Congress and out of harm's way. The labour movement, you see, is not quite so enamoured of Mr Wilson as is Mr Clark who knows better that they do that with Gordon Wilson there reposes the chance of at least a decent showing in the next election.

Moreover, there is an NDP convention coming up. There is a grave risk in him facing that convention still as premier. Political conventions aren’t always polite affairs, especially NDP ones.

I think, therefore, that the Premier will step down before the first of June – unless, of course, he has miscalculated and the police report comes in or Mr Oliver makes his report earlier than expected.

It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Mr Clark stays on but I can’t see it. He is fatally wounded and his party, especially the caucus knows that. The party will let his leave taking be at his timing – up to a point. I believe that point is reached no later than June 1^st.