The Written Word
for June 13, 1999

What is going to happen in Ireland? Will there be unification - or as the Nationalists say, reunification? Will the "troubles" end in the North?

The answer to all questions is a qualified "yes" - in time. There is an inevitability about it all that, of all people, The Reverend Ian Paisley, the wild eyed Northern Unionist understands so well, but fights so ineffectively for all his bluster.

Paisley has always been right when he has foreseen the unification of the island but he has been passed by time. He has always seen the issue in terms of "papism" and "romism" governing the loyal northern 6 counties. And for a time he was right. The issue was Catholicism v Protestantism and the threat was a Catholic and Republican Dublin overwhelming the loyal and Protestant North. But the times they are a-changing. And religion counts for less and peace counts for more.

But the real reason why the Northern Protestant fears Catholic Dublin less and less is the radical change in both areas. The South isn't very Catholic any more and it's becoming less and less so each passing year.

Contraception is legal and so is divorce - the struggle has been a long one but abortion in the south will soon be legal as well. I'm not happy with legalized abortion but this article is not about my personal feelings but about political realities. The Catholic Church, more entrenched in Ireland than any other country in Christendom, is losing its power in the Republic. More than that, it has finally rejected, on the ground where it matters, the violence of the IRA.

There is another factor, of course. Within 10 years, 15 at the outside, there will be more Catholics in Northern Ireland than Protestants. While the issue isn't a religious one, that's the way the teams are marked and how the score is kept. Somewhere around 2010 the voting power will have switched from "Unionist", that is to say those loyal to Great Britain, to "Nationalist", or those in favour of unification of Ireland.

Most important of all is the European Community. Eire has prospered beyond belief under the EC. Dublin is the "in" city of Europe and the economic growth in the country is about 8% while the community as a whole struggles to exceed 2%. What the EC has meant is that countries like Britain can loosen the political cords for Wales and Scotland because they, like England are becoming more European than British. Similarly, the unification of Ireland won't be all that big a deal when both sections of the country are more involved economically - and politically - with the European Community than with their own country, whatever form that takes.

I believe that it you look at the grand sweep of history the unification of Ireland is inevitable. More than that, I think that the catalyst will be the interest in both political units in common membership in the European Community. Unionists now look askance at what appears to be the loosening of bonds, not to say the breakup of the rest of the United Kingdom but at the same time see that it really doesn't matter much any more.

There will be more grief to come I'm sure but Ireland will, in a looser form than Nationalists would like, will be united and in my opinion within the first decade of the next century - which as all who can count know, starts on January 1, 2001.