The Written Word
for October 6, 1999

Now that it seems pretty clear that Gordon Wilson will not be the next Premier of BC the question becomes, who will be?

Wilson’s fall from grace has been utterly deserved. His notion of a conspiracy is so typical of a man who can’t enforce personal discipline. Wilson, like Bill Vander Zalm, is a loner. He expects to be obeyed without question. He is intelligent but minus the smarts it takes to stand out in front of the pack. He has consistently told untruths about all issues – his personal life, his financial situation, and where he stands. What could have been, and should have been a story that died in 48 hours was given legs by Mr Wilson himself - Gordon Wilson has become mocked and laughed out of the race to be Premier.

What about Joy McPhail? For a non NDPer it’s hard to predict but one would have to think that she would get much support which otherwise would have gone to Gordon Wilson. For one thing, John Shields would, one presumes, want McPhail the unionist over Dosanjh the academic and lawyer. Ms McPhail is seen as the union’s choice but the labour movement only counts for perhaps 30% of the vote.

My gut feeling has me turning back to Ujjal Dosanjh now that Wilson’s all but gone. He has one very big thing going for him – apparent integrity. I said apparent because Mr Dosanjh did get some dirt under his nails over the Nanaimo Commowealth case and there is a body of opinion that believes that he tarried too long in blowing the whistle on Glen Clark, (Ironically, there is another group that thinks he blew it too soon.)

Mr Dosanjh has been fortunate in his portfolio. Attorneys-General don’t usually get the flak that other ministers get. Moreover, he looks and sounds trustworthy. If the party is looking for a safe pair of hands to get the respectability it needs and to avoid a wipe-out in the next election, Ujjal’s probably their best choice.

Picking winners in political events is usually as safe as picking horses, the exception being that in this case there will likely only be two real contenders.

Could someone like Corky Evans come up the middle? Of course and the situation is good for that sort of event. The two main branches of the party are not on speaking terms. The Clark, Sihota, Barrett gang are seen as the cause of much of the problem. On the other hand Ujjal Dosanjh is disliked intensely by much of the McPhail group. This is the classic prescription for the up the middle scene because there is so little room for Dosanjh to attract from the McPhail camp and vice versa. When this kind of deadlock happens, sometimes a Joe Clark or Bob Skelly can indeed fly up the middle.

My guess, and I warn you my track record is lousy, is a second round victory for Mr Dosanjh. Whatever happens, no matter how hard they try to demonstrate otherwise, there will be a lot of wounds, many of them open, when the battle is done.