The Written Word
for November 3, 1999

I am puzzled by the NDP leadership race in many of its aspects.

First off, I wonder why it was so long delayed. It could easily have been held in October which would have had it out of the way now and the new Premier firmly in place. As it is, the NDP will be lucky if any of them are alive by next February. Bad feelings exude from very NDP pore and it’s going to get worse. Unlike most run-ups to leadership conventions, this one is getting really ugly for the good reason that every candidate has to run on the proposition that he or she is not as responsible for the mess as the others. Glen Clark has advised the candidates to slap him around but that won’t get the job done – each candidate will be measured by the others as to their role in the debacle.

I’m also puzzled about the personal animosity that exists. Having watched other races I can tell you that there is always hostility amongst the various camps but usually the principals are able to keep their cool. Here the feelings run all the way from intense dislike unto hatred. It has even split an ethnic community.

I’m befuddled by Gordon Wilson. How can a man with so much raw talent get himself into the position where he is such damaged goods that he can only rely on the Glen Clark people and that doesn’t enhance your standing with most of the rest of the party.

I’m puzzled by the lack of caucus support for Joy McPhail. Is that because, perhaps, she jumped ship last July before it all hit the fan, then left town to let the rest of caucus wrestle with the Premier’s scandal? It would appear so and though organized labour seems behind her, she needs more than that to get selected.

I have trouble with the candidacy of Ujjal Dosanjh. Why is he playing the Hamlet role when the vacuum in leadership is so great that he could easily be Henry V? The party cries out for leadership of a relatively unsullied sort yet Mr Dosanjh plays coy.

And what about Dan Miller? On Monday, Moe Sihota made it all but plain that there was a "draft Dan" movement afoot and I got the impression that Miller was not averse to the idea despite his previous statements. This, of course, would mean that Miller would have to go back on his word given to caucus that he wouldn’t seek the leadership … this, naturally, doesn’t bother the Sihota morality a bit but it would certainly have Messrs Evans, Dosanj and Ms McPhail justifiably upset – they have spent some money and a lot of effort on the assumption that Miller was not in.

Who will win?

Picking any political winner is a bit of a mug’s game but I think it will come down to Mr Dosanjh and Ms McPhail. I think Gordon Wilson has destroyed himself and that Mr Evans, attractive a guy as he is, is just too, well, hickish, to get the urban vote he needs. Besides, even the NDP would have a tough time selling "Corky" as the name of a premier. All predictions are up for grabs, of course, if Dan Miller opts back in but I think at the end of the day the delegates will opt for the person with the best poll results. This is a very big convention for the NDP – amongst other things the survival of the party is at stake. Whoever looks to give the party the most seats at the next election will get the nod … and that person will be Ujjal Dosanjh.

You can bet on that … but I wouldn’t bet too much.