The Written Word
for April 16, 2000

The race for the leadership of the Canadian Alliance has now become not only mildly heated but legitimate in two senses.

First off, if the party can show it has strength in Ontario it becomes a "national party" even though it hasn’t yet shown much of a presence in Quebec or Atlantic Canada. This is because it becomes a party that could form a government even though those two regions are not represented. But more than that, it becomes a national party because with respectability in three regions it becomes an alternative in the other two. Respectability in Ontario, the Prairies and British Columbia doesn’t in itself mean that Quebec and Atlantic Canada will flock to the colours but it does mean that acceptability there will no longer be scoffed at. You will see Alliance constituency organizations get some life and indeed some respectability elsewhere.

Secondly, the party is getting decent media coverage for the first time. It’s a pity in a way that there is no large convention because that really does get the media looking but just the race itself with at least three vigorous candidates will occupy the news for some time. I wonder why they didn’t take a leaf from the BC Liberals book and combine a convention with an electronic election. Perhaps like many hybrids this would have had none of the attractions of either part and all the objections of each but still, you can’t very well televise an enthusiastic convention if there isn’t one.

What all this has done is prove Preston Manning right that you will see interest develop once Ontario is part of the picture. The Alliance is not Reform by another name and no one knows that better than the Liberals and Tories that are vocally claiming that it is.

But there is another factor at play here. The Tories are taking a big hit both in Ontario and west of the Lakehead. It’s not just because of Joe Clark – though God knows he’s always been an old man and he now looks prehistoric – but the party itself has never survived the double whammy of 1993 and the defection of Jean Charest who, if nothing else, had a physical youth combined with a youthful zest. If, as it appears, the famous Big Blue Machine behind Tom Long, and Tories become Alliancers, this is a big blow indeed. And if either Long or Stockwell Day become leader Joe Clark will look positively awful by comparison. And Clark has another problem – he’s by now means assured of a seat in Calgary.

It’s too soon to really assess the full impact of the Canadian Alliance on the political scene in Canada but the fact that the Liberals and Tories are sneering at them at every turn tells us that the established parties are worried.

As worried they indeed should be.