The Written Word
for May 21, 2000

Those who would count the NDP out ought to take a good look at what Ujjal Dosanjh is doing and planning to do.

First, the saving of the Upper Pitt by nixing the gravel pit was a stroke of political genius. There was an enormous effort made by a broad cross section of the public against Mainland Sand and Gravel’s proposed mine which would clearly have threatened not only Olsen Creek, the Lower Fraser’s largest Coho spawning river but would unquestionably opened up the entire area for more gravel exploitation. So it wasn’t just your usual suspects that rallied around the effort to save the Upper Pitt – it was reminiscent of the broad coalition who fought to save the Skagit 30 years ago.

The Pitt impacted on five constituencies – four of which are held by the NDP in what could be considered "swing" ridings. Mr Dosanjh did much, by this decision, to cement their positions. Then there was the business community to consider so Premier Dosanjh promised to compensate Mainland to the tune of $1.2 million if they could not obtain another gravel mine adjacent to their present pit. Environmentalists happy, ditto outdoors people, ditto NDP supporters and ditto the business community - all in all, a political coup of considerable proportions.

Second, you will see Premier Dosanjh carefully and thoroughly isolate his enemies in the NDP caucus. He has correctly concluded that he doesn’t need the dissidents led by Glen Clark and his deputy disturber, Moe Sihota. They have nowhere to go and dare not bring down the government lest they utterly destroy their own futures. Take Glen Clark, for example – all he knows is union organizing. Notwithstanding the present friction between the Dosanjh government and the labour movement, if Clark were to be part of bringing down this government he would be toast with labour. You will see Dosanjh exercise a bit more patience than turn the matter over to caucus saying "it’s my way or the highway. Either you deal with these people or I’m outta here." Caucus will deal with them.

Third you will see policy develop starting in Kamloops in June which will surprise many people. It will appeal especially to middle class British Columbians Mr Dosanjh supposing, quite correctly, that the traditional left support has nowhere else to go. There will be policy for small business especially, a community which, while not NDP nevertheless employs a hell of a lot of people who can be so persuaded.

Fourthly, you will see a heightened demonizing of Gordon Campbell. Although this sort of personal attack is not Dosanjh’s style, he will bow to his political advisers and steadily portray Campbell as a developer with strong connections to Howe Street playing on the fact that as Bill Vander Zalm says, "no one likes Gordon Campbell and no one knows why". This theme will be especially obvious in Interior ridings where this sort of attack will lead to votes for Reform which very much helps the Liberals.

Will all this work?

Probably not in the sense of winning a majority. There has just been too much bad in the last nine years for that to occur. But it will work to the extent that it will get the NDP the 15-20 seats it needs to stay competitive and it will consolidate Mr Dosanjh’s hold on the party.

And always remember – in politics, six months is an eternity.