The Written Word
for May 28, 2000

I wonder if it’s just whistling past the graveyard but despite the unbelievably low position occupied in the polls by the NDP I hear questions like, can Campbell blow it again?

I don’t think so but in analyzing the situation from the point of view of those who want to see the back of the NDP for many years to come some things must be considered form a couple of perspectives.

It’s hard, for example, for things to get any worse for Mr Dosanjh and his party. A political party gets down so low that further blows do very little harm indeed just because the overall damage is so great. This means that Mr Dosanjh is as low as he is going to get. And he even gets a bit of sympathy.

There is a hard core NDP support of, perhaps 25%, who will vote for the NDP no matter what. That’s not an encouraging number to go into an election race with but it always keeps you in the hunt.

The economy is improving and just as the NDP were blamed for all the bad things they will claim and get credit for much of the good stuff that happens.

There is the undefinable role of Bill Vander Zalm and the Reform Party. No one seriously suggests that they can win any seats but they can be spoilers. They were in 1996 and the right elements are in place to do it again. What Mr Campbell either has not understood – or, understanding, hasn’t the jam to do anything about – is the hearty dislike of Liberals of any stripe in many interior and northern ridings. Campbell has had his chance and he has ignored all advice to change the name of the party. If the Provincial Liberals really are a different party than the Federal Liberals why on earth wouldn’t they change the name to make that clear? The answer is that there are far too many federal Liberals in the Provincial party to ignore – and these are the people that raise election funding for the BC party. It must be said that many people, were there not a Reform candidate in the race, who would just not vote. Nevertheless this is a worry.

Finally, no one knows how a campaign will play out. Sometimes one small incident can change the entire picture, such as when Dave Barrett opposed "restraint" in 1983 and Bob Skelly misspoke himself launching the 1986 campaign … or when Gordon Wilson latched onto the winning one-liner in the leadership debate of 1991. Now this can cut two ways – it could be Mr Dosanjh who screws up but not likely given his track record plus the fact that he personally seems to get slack cut for him by the public.

I really have little doubt that Mr Campbell and his Liberals will win. But those tippy tip toeing past that graveyard know that favourites, even odds on favourites have lost before. And there are, unbelievable as it may seem, ways the Liberals could blow this one.