The Written Word
for August 2, 2000

Does the NDP have any chance to win the next election? Only a fool would say so. Only an idiot would bet on it. Yet long shots – very long shots - have been known to romp home winners. Which is a very good argument, I suppose, for fixed four year terms.

But what sort of magical things must fall into place for a miracle to happen?

First off we must discount the polls. A political fact is that you can’t fall any further than the floor. Once on the floor, the only way is up.

Second we must remember – as Gordon Campbell himself has acknowledged – the NDP have a core support of some 25%-30%. At the higher range the NDP is only perhaps 10 percentage points at worst from winning an election.

Third, ever since his elevation to the Premier’s office, Ujjal Dosanjh has been shoring up his reserves and corralling in the core support. The leadership convention was devoted exclusively to that exercise. The premier’s paying, through the Workers Compensation Board, $400,000 to the BC Federation of Labour is but one example. Mr Dosanjh has, perhaps, 6 months more to ensure that all his little socialist ducks are in a row.

Fourthly, Mr Dosanjh is depending on a major turnaround in the economy. This won’t bring him that many votes, perhaps, but it softens opposition zeal considerably.

Lastly and most importantly, Ujjal Dosanjh is counting on Gordon Campbell to screw up big time, somewhere down the line. They see May of 1996 in their reveries and can only hope that there is a repeat.

Mr Campbell is in a bad way in this regard. He is not well liked and his errors somehow seem larger than they should. He has steadfastly refused to change the name of the party and as the campaign – which we’re in right now – moves along we’ll see more and more of the same old Liberal gang like the redoubtable Mae Brown in the fray. And there will be the televised debate. There is always the NDP hope that perhaps Bill Vander Zalm will make Campbell look less attractive to right wing voters … or that Campbell will screw up.

As Damon Runyan said "The race is not always to the swift nor the contest to the strong – but that’s the way to bet." And my money’s on the Liberals.

But yet ….