The Written Word
for March 4, 2001

The tippy toeing of Tory and Alliance MPs towards common ground is, of course, an exercise that all in Canada not of the left applaud. And one can well understand, indeed applaud, the care being taken. The next convention of the Alliance in not for a year so nothing can be done before then anyway.

The problems are largely superficial – for example, what will the new party be called. Presumably the Conservative Alliance Party of Canada would be a choice acceptable to all unless they get down to the kind of wrangling that debates who sits where at the table.

The more fundamental question – and one to be avoided until the very end if not forever – is what vision of Canada does the new party have? Is a believer in the Great Canadian Fiction, "two founding nations", or the Alliance position of ten juridically equal provinces? This is equivalent to the abortion issue in that every party must permit individual opinions but none need take a formal position.

How this exercise works will largely dictate how long Jean Chretien will stay in office. For there is only one factor in his decision to stay or go – will I be elected? It’s nonsense – and indeed ignorant of the man – to think that he will go at a time suitable to a smooth power transmission by the Liberal Party of Canada. Chretien, like so many old men – and he is old before his time – believes with every passing day that he is indispensable. Apres moi, le deluge was the by-word of De Gaulle … and it’s the by-word of Chretien.

The Prime Minister despises Paul Martin from another movie. He has no interest in helping him become prime minister.

Why, then, is Martin in such a powerful ministry?

Two reasons. First, the Finance portfolio can be a quick death for any politician, should things go wrong. Secondly, as Lyndon Johnson said of J. Edgar Hoover – "I’d rather have him inside the tent pissing out than outside pissing in."

The bottom line, then, is this. Chretien will not go voluntarily. He doesn’t believe that there is anyone in the party who can take his place – the traditional delerium of old politicians past their prime. He will only go when he thinks he might be beaten. And that will only happen if the present, tentative steps by Tory and Alliance members brings about a viable political force that can take fifty seats in Ontario.