The Written Word
for December 5, 2001

In the weekend Saturday National Post, Andrew Coyne writes an obituary for the Canadian Parliament. It is brilliantly done – and even better, it’s true. My only complaint is that it comes so long after death but then picking the precise moment of death of an institution can be difficult and perhaps it’s right that political doctors take a conservative approach. What remains to be seen is what this will mean.

The terminal nature of the ailment was made clear when, 20 years ago, then Prime Minister Trudeau stated that "50 yards off Parliament Hill MPs are nobodies" prompting the two obvious questions - why the old English measurement, considering how fond Mr Trudeau was of metric but, more to the point, why any geographical limitation at all?

I have written at length on this elsewhere but suffice it to say that the House of Commons, instead of being the source of the Prime Minister’s power, is now about where the Polish Parliament was around 1950 – there to give an automatic stamp of approval of whatever the prime minister wishes. It’s safe to say, of course, that the next president-for-life to be appointed by the various misfits that make up a Liberal leadership convention will, after making some cooing noises about change, continue to do as he wishes.

But what will be the effect of all this? Dare I spell it out?

Very well then, the country will split. And here’s how it’s going to happen.

Now first off, the Prime Minister ignores all MPs but

he does have to keep a wary eye on Ontario. The Ontario caucus us in effect the government caucus and, fortunately for Mr Chretien, they’re divided between rural and urban, North, South and Central and all the normal things that permit a Prime Minister to pat a head here, throw a cookie there and keep the kids peaceful if not happy. But here is the first important point to remember – no matter how much Chretien abuses the notion of parliamentary democracy and "responsible" government he will be to the Ontario caucus as the Dominican dictator Trujillo was to Franklin D Roosevelt – "he may be a sonofabitch but at least he’s our son of a bitch".

The trouble comes, where else, in British Columbia for here the utter disconnection between the governed and our governors is complete. This predates the Charlottetown Referendum, of course, but it was there – and in the election that followed the next year – where the break was obvious. BC is often seen as Reform/Alliance country but the past three elections don’t tell the real story which is that British Columbia is the most middle-of-the-road province in the country but it hates the middle-of-the-road party, the Liberals with a passion. That’s why Reform/Alliance has done well and is why Alliance MPs from BC are so different from their Alberta counterparts. That’s the background – here is the plot.

Jean Charest will be the next premier of Quebec and to get there he’s going to have to promise, as a bare minimum, what Charlottetown would have given – a Quebec veto, "distinct society", and 25% of the House of Commons forever, irrespective of Quebec’s share of the country’s population. Chretien knows this will happen and that’s one of the reasons he wants out.

There will be a call to patriotism by whomever is the next Liberal Prime Minister and premiers will be summoned to a conference to save the nation by yielding to Quebec’s minimal demands.

Premier Campbell will not agree but even if he does, it won’t matter because in British Columbia there must be a referendum before any constitutional change is agreed upon. (I know, that legislation could be repealed but it would be at the expense, literally, of blood in the streets.)

In 1992 the best political schmoozer in Canada’s history – in fact Brian Mulroney was world class – laid his political balls on the line for the Charlottetown deal. We know what happened. But what we must remember is that the "no" vote in BC was nearly 70% right in the face of Mulroney declaring that the country would split the next day if the vote lost.

Since 1992/3 British Columbians have seen almost a decade of even greater indifference from the House of Commons than that which prompted them to toss out the Tories, and a native BC Prime Minister, in 1993. The sense of disconnection is even greater. And I go even further – even if the next election were to send a slug of Liberals from BC to Ottawa it would make no difference for that would only happen because of the dearth of alternatives.

There must be a referendum. It will fail. That will turn it back on for the separatists in Quebec and Mr Charest will become all but one of them. It is in this atmosphere that British Columbia will calculate its future.

In presenting the Canadian case, what will be said? That we have a democracy? That we have an elected lower house not only independent of the executive but sensitive to regions outside Central Canada? That we have an upper house, fairly representing the regions, that can be counted upon to give serious voice to BC’s concerns? That Ottawa and Ontario can be trusted to be fair in any new national arrangements that omit the departing Quebec?

There is a fundamental problem, you see – the prisms through which Canadians see Canada varies from region to region. British Columbians never have seen the country as the ongoing unsettled struggle between Upper and Lower Canada, it being BC’s duty to always follow Ontario’s lead. Canada, as it has always been presented to us by Central Canada through its media arm the CBC, is not the Canada we see – we see a dream where instead of 50%+1 of the House of Commons having 100% of the power, exercised by a dictator, there will be a fair House of Commons with a regional upper house where BC can exercise some as opposed to no influence. That dream can never be.

There will be no bloodshed nor taking to the barricades. We will wake up one morning to find an invitation to join a new Canada where Ontario will have one half the Members of the New Parliament – and we will send our regrets.