In the former case, Christy Clark, Mike DeJong and Kevin Falcon seem to be the front runners while in the latter, though there are no declared candidates, it would seem to be Adrian Dix, Mike Farnworth and John Horgan.

With the Liberals, two things must, I think, be borne on mind – the Liberal voting procedure is not yet tested and the decision will tell us if the urban or rural vote is favoured. If it’s the rule, George Abbott comes into the picture.

Christy is the “charisma queen” and given that the Liberals tend to worry most about getting a winner whatever the cost, she must rank as leader in the race – for the time being.

But as Kim Campbell said of Bill Vander Zalm though she didn’t name him, “Charisma without substance is a dangerous thing”. So be it with Ms Clark. Her strong suit is her deep connections to the party; her problem is that she cannot escape the sale of BC Rail decision and will be faced by many British Columbians who will connect her support of privatization to the dangers facing BC Hydro.

Speaking of party strength, Kevin Falcon will be the “Campbellite” favourite but it remains to be seen if that is a plus or minus. His selection would be greeted with shrills of delight from the NDP since Falcon is the most loyal of all to the Campbell loyalists. Again, if he is seen as unelectable or close in the polls, he’ll not get the nod.

Mike DeJong has the advantage of being able to stand back from many controversies because he was Attorney-General and, moreover, has said he will axe the HST.

What DeJong cannot avoid is his position on the Basi-Virk scandal. He ordered the pay-out and the settlement just in time to save Campbell and former Finance Minister Gary Collins from having to testify.

What’s for sure is that the polls, as campaigns move along, will be a very serious factor

The NDP is, like the Liberal Party, a coalition. Unlike the Liberals they tend to favour a leader who has the fewest serious enemies in the party without much regard as to whether he/she can win.

Mike Farnworth is the experienced one having been in the cabinet as well as showing considerable ability in the Legislature and on the hustings. That he’s gay is seen rightly, as irrelevant, except in the Bible Belt where people get very antsy about such matters.

John Horgan, seen as the favourite of the environmentalist community has only one problem: his health. On the former matter, he’s the best read and strongest of the lot and, if as I suspect, the environment is a big issue he would do well.

In one way, Adrian Dix is the best of the candidates because he’s an alley fighter, a take no prisoners campaigner. If he gets the nod, he’ll be tough and you would see many Liberal references to Dix’s creative memo back in the Clark days.

The biggest problem for the NDP is putting Humpty Dumpty back together again. Whenever you have the sort of political homicide that saw Carole James “done-in” the wounds remain deep – especially with the NDP the divisions of which take eons to go away, if they ever do.

Each party has an elephant in the room.

For the Liberals, it’s Carole Taylor who, though she has ruled it out, might just get in the race (which would no longer be a race) if the bloodletting threatens the party itself.

For the NDP it’s Corky Evans who denies any such ambitions but has been sending forth long, philosophical mail-outs which usually only happens when the writer is at least saying “if you really have trouble keeping the party alive and well, I will, with seemly reluctance, come to the rescue”. I don’t believe that the party wants him that badly – he’s lost two prior leadership contests but he would be a terrific campaigner,

There is another possibility arising – a “third” party of the centre. The window of time is limited but it’s there and I’ll forbear comment until the picture clears a bit.

Most pundits including me (have we ever been wrong?) believe that Campbell will step down in 2011 and, in my view, get his reward with a high 6 figures or better job in the energy business for whom he has done so many nice things. If he does, the leadership will be open (there’s a brilliant statement for you!) and we’ll see if the Premier has any favourites in or out of cabinet.

I’m going to assume he has but that they’re confined to one man, about which more in a moment.

Outside cabinet, two names make some sense, Carole Taylor and Dianne Watts, the Teflon mayor of Surrey. Both have, in addition to their talents, the positive factor of being women to be compared and contrasted with the NDP lady who probably still be in charge.

Permit me to digress. I’m told by some NDPers that I’m seen as disliking Carole James. Quite the opposite – I like her very much. In a system that was civilized, and minority governments were the norm, she would make a damned good premier in my view. The fact is that we have a legislature reminiscent of a nest of adders and government comes from the premier’s office, not the House.

What about inside cabinet?

The next couple of cabinet shuffles will tell the tale.

The one man with the royal jelly combined with political smarts (they don’t always go together) is Mike Dejong. He also is the most effective of Cabinet adders when he’s free to fight. He’s thorough and vicious reminding me of when Margot Asquith said of David Lloyd George “he never saw a belt he didn’t hit below”.

As attorney-general he’s in that strange anomaly, a cabinet minister whose guns must be spiked. To be an effective A/G one must be above the fray and Dejong has proved remarkably good at that. He is also turning out to be an effective A/G thus one of the only cabinet ministers – hell, he is the only cabinet minister who’s effective.

If Campbell sees Dejong as his blessed, hand picked successor, Dejong will stay as A/G thus out of harm’s way. If Campbell doesn’t want him to take over the corner office, he will switch him to Children and Families or Finance minister or some other handy graveyard of political ambition.

Why wouldn’t Campbell lay hands on Carole Taylor (in a political sense, silly)?

First, one must consider whether or not Ms Taylor wants the job. Her husband has not, I’m told, been in perfect health and she’s getting on a bit. She may see the chalice as sufficiently poisoned to wish it upon someone else.

Second, she quit Pinocchio’s cabinet over fiscal concerns she had as Finance Minister. To seek the big job she will have to deal with that issue. If she seeks the leadership while supporting Campbell’s fiscal policy, she puts herself on the same plane as Mr. Dejong and will upset members who want to eradicate all memory of Campbell.

If she denounces Campbell’s fiscal policy she will piss off the remaining Campbellites.

What about Diane Watts?

She may not even be a Liberal but, of course, that’s a trivial point with that ever pragmatic group. Of more interest is her ability to sign up delegates from her interesting but tiny base of power in Surrey.

Is Ms Watts any more than a pretty face who mesmerizes the media?

We’ll find out more in the coming months.

There is another name, of course – Christy Clark. She has been a great talk show in the sense of always being kind to the government. Her husband is the quintessential backroom boy in the party.

Christy Clark is a possibility but she too has to live with the facts she quit Pinocchio’s government and somehow lost the NPA nomination for Vancouver Mayor to Sam Sullivan. It wasn’t just that she lose but she, her hubby and the “machine” were convinced she would win.

For now, keep your eyes on what Premier Campbell does with Mike Dejong

Postscript: Look for Ralph Soltan, the best business brain in the entire Caucus (though that’s damning with very faint praise indeed) to finally make cabinet.

Why?

Because after being such a loyal soldier for so long, he now looks as if he wants to speak out on issues and not be concerned about whom he hurts. That’s one of the better ways to get into cabinet.