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Hands up, all who thought the Soviet Union would lose its empire and implode within a two year period. Not too many takers I wouldn’t think.

Well, I believe that the European Union will also implode and that when it does. All hell will break loose.

Why will it implode?

Because, as with the USSR, it’s component parts are like chalk is to cheese with each other. The only thing they have in common is 2500 years or more of inability to live with one another. 50 years after the whole thing started Germans are still Germans, Poles are still Poles, French are still French and, most importantly, Britain is still British.

It’s like many marriages – great fun and a frolic a minute in early times but little to keep it together when trouble happens. You may say that many marriages work – and they do because everywhere except in Bountiful. BC  there are only 2 people involved. With the EU it’s 27 in the same bed.

The EU is a Ponzi scheme and as long as new comers provided markets for the early partners sufficient to keep everyone reasonably solvent, it looked like a success.

Now, however, the scheme is collapsing as several countries are worse than dead broke and charter members and wealthier members are asked to pick up the tab. The French and the Germans especially the latter have antsy voters. In Germany’s case they still haven’t fully recovered from the return of East Germany to the Reich.

I hope I’m wrong but if I’m not, what happens?

The major benefit of the union has been peace amongst historical fighting fools. When Churchill foresaw the EU (he didn’t see the UK in it, by the way) it’s purpose was to stop France and Germany fighting wars that soon brought in all their neighbours. And it has worked – so far.

Let me state this as a proposition – “ethnicity” never dies. As the breakup of Yugoslavia demonstrated so clearly, families can live side by side for hundreds of years but when the opportunity arises, they started slitting each other’s throats.

One example of why worry beads should be out – a great deal of western Poland was taken after World War II from Germany, the German citizens being shipped out. A great portion of what was once eastern Poland, now is part of Ukraine. If the EU implodes, you will hear once again cries about Silesia, Pomerania, Prussia and even Alsace/Lorraine to say nothing of the Sudetenland, the casus belli of World War II.

A former German soldier, who was my law partner for many years, once said to me, slightly in his cups, “Rafe, the borders of Europe are not yet settled”.

I may be all wet about the impending implosion of the EU – we’d all better hope so!

2 Responses to “From Rafe’s desk: European Union implosion”

  1. Trailblazer says:

    As a Canadian/ British dual national I find this an interesting read.
    Interesting enough to pass it on to friends in the UK for scrutiny.
    Regardless of why or what! the consequences of a break up of the European Union ‘could’ be disastrous.
    Having said that; the first thing a divided Europe will do (the same can be said for a divided Canada/Quebec) is to enter talks on how to work together!!
    Just because there are those that take advantage of ,& ruin well meaning national or international agreements does not mean that the agreement was at fault in the first place.
    The world is awash with problems particularly financial that were brought upon by the greedy & dishonest ; not those that wished for a bit more understanding & peacful living.

  2. rafe says:

    Good points but I fear it would get down to the same old protaganists – Germany, france and the UK.

    I devoutly hope this doesn’t happen but ever since 1989 I’ve broken myself of the habit of sayung that anything can’t happen and the breakup of Yugoslavia taught me that ethnciity never dies.

    Rafe

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